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Focus on 21-Week Simple Moving Average
BTC: Price: $3,966 | MCAP: $70 billion | 24-Hr Volume: $9.15 billion
Short-term trend: Neutral-to-bearish
Backed by strong volumes, bitcoin jumped to three-week highs above $4,040 on Saturday, strengthening the case for a rally to recent highs above $4,190.
In the last 48 hours, however, the momentum seems to have stalled. Notably, the cryptocurrency is struggling to hold on to gains above $4,000 for the third straight day.
The signs of exhaustion come at a time when BTC is closing on the key 21-week moving average (MA), currently at $4,073 (as per Bitstamp). That average served as a strong resistance throughout 2018. Further, it is still trending south, indicating a bearish setup. Thus, a convincing break above that level will likely remain elusive for few weeks and prices may witness a minor pullback to $3,800.
That said, the outlook as per the daily chart would turn bearish if repeated struggle near the 21-week MA ends up pushing prices below the Feb/. 27 low of $3,658.
Long-term trend: Neutral
The long-term outlook will remain neutral as long as prices are trapped between the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) support and the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $3,404 and $4,106, respectively. A weekly close (Sunday, UTC) above the 200-week EMA would confirm a bearish-to-bullish trend change.
Read Analysis
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Ontology Goes Hard ONT: Price: $1.13 | MCAP: $560.8 million | 24-Hr Volume: $57.3 million
Short-term trend: Pullback
The indecisive doji on the 6-hour chart demonstrates an unwillingness to bypass the prior high at $1.20 with an overbought RSI and a weak Chaikin money flow (CMF) signal hinting at an imminent pullback.
A large injection of volume on March 17 has backed the swing high retest of an area of strong resistance between $1.18-1.20, but today's bar is slow out of the gate hinting at investor hesitation and an unwillingness to push higher.
Long-term trend: Cautiously bearish
The exaggerated bearish divergence with similar highs on the indicator and higher highs in price presents caution and that would not go astray in this setup given its immediate failure to cement new highs.
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Holo Holding The Line
HOT: Price: $0.0012309 | MCAP: $158.6 million | 24-Hr Volume: $8.5 million
Short-term trend: Neutral
With both the 7-period and 26-period exponential moving averages (EMA) having crossed bullish as recently as March 16 price action remains in favor of the bulls who are currently mid-fight for control above the aforementioned 7-period EMA. Dropping below would signal a loss by the bulls to maintain buying pressure in the short-term and price action could swing violently to the downside as the CMF passes below the neutral 0 line.
Long-term trend: Bullish potential
HOT is yet to create any new significant higher highs on the weekly time-frame, however, the current close to the weekly period would indeed set a higher high close of the candle for the second week in a row, a sign of increasing interest.
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Bitcoin's break above $4,200, if and when confirmed, could yield a rally toward $6,000, according to @CryptoChartsChartsJoe.
Indeed, a break above $4,200 would active twin bullish cues - an inverse head-and-shoulders breakout and a violation of the long-term bearish lower highs and lower lows. Also, above $4,200, the next major chart resistance is seen directly at $6,000.
That said, on the way higher, bitcoin may encounter stiff resistance at: - $4,979 (August 2017 high).
- $5,229 (21-month EMA) - levels which acted as strong support in five months to November 2018.
- $5,286 (downward sloping 10-month moving average).
A repeated rejection at any of these key levels could spoil the bear party. |
CoinDesk's article takes note of the recent surge in bitcoin's user growth, as represented by active network addresses, and the impact of key metrics like transaction volume, active addresses, and Transaction Amount to Active Addresses Ratio (TAAR) on crypto market leader's price.
Key takeaways
The active addresses count tends to rise even when long-term dormant "HODLers" move out of the cryptocurrency and into fiat. So, its risky to bet on price rise every time active addresses rise.
The 30-day average of transaction volume has a strong positive correlation with price and has closely identified bitcoin market tops and bottoms.
TAAR represents how the interplay between the two metrics that measure the quantity (transaction volume) and quality (active addresses) of network activity impacts bitcoin’s price as opposed to viewing their effects in isolation. Bitcoin’s market reacts positively when the TAAR is in an uptrend and reacts negatively when it is not. |
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| Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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Rally Pauses