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Strong Volumes Favor Price Breakout
BTC: Price: $3,951 | MCAP: $69 billion | 24-Hr Volume: $11 billion
Short-term trend: Cautiously bullish
Bitcoin is lacking a clear directional bias for tenth straight day, contradicting the quick move toward $4,200 suggested by the bullish candle created on March 5. Trading volumes, however, remain elevated at highs above $11 billion, going against the technical theory that investor interest tends to drop during periods of consolidation. Therefore, the ongoing sideways trading near $3,900 may end with a bull breakout toward the recent high of $4,207.
Trading volumes have been strong since the corrective rally kicked off in early February, so a range breakdown looks unlikely. The bullish case, however, would weaken if prices find acceptance below $3,866 (prices as per CoinMarketCap).
Long-term trend: Neutral
The long-term outlook will remain neutral as long as prices are trapped between the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) support and the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $3,404 and $4,106, respectively. A weekly close (Sunday, UTC) above the 200-week EMA would confirm a bearish-to-bullish trend change.
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QTUM Shooting For The Stars QTUM: Price: $1.53 | MCAP: $222.8 million | 24-Hr Volume: $2.09 billion
Short-term trend: Pullback
QTUM has seen the largest injection of volume on the Kraken exchange since it was first listed on Sept. 28, 2018 and is currently up 19 percent over a 24-hour period to stand as today's best performing crypto among the top 100 at CoinMarketCap.
If the pullback from recent highs manages a bounce from the green resistance turned support zone between $2.45 and $2.52 then that would cement a higher low and provide a good base in which the bulls can mount another assault for greater gains.
Long-term trend: Neutral-Bearish
However, Falling below the aforementioned support zone would only entrench the bearish long-term view considering that this is an important level the bulls have failed to scale previously.
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PIVX Down But Not Out PIVX: Price: $0.98 | MCAP: $150.6 million | 24-Hr Volume: $26.9 million
Short-term trend: Neutral
Despite being down more than 9 percent after retracing slightly on the daily chart, the weekly chart looks more favorable for the bulls amidst greater indecision seen by large topside wicks.
Currently holding along the 7-period EMA (bullish above for the short-term) with largest amount of volume since Dec. 24 with minimal ranging so far.
Long-term trend: Bullish potential
If PIVX manages to curve out and create a new higher low base upon which to build, then a case for greater gains in the long-term can be made given the rise on the RSI and buying conditions looking more favorable thanks to a decreasing Chaikin money flow (CMF).
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ETH/BTC, widely considered a risk barometer of cryptocurrency markets, is reporting 1 percent gain today, having witnessed a bullish crossover of the 100 and 200-week moving averages (MAs).
Even so, @CoinDeskMarkets is calling caution, and rightfully so, as these long-term MA crossovers are lagging indicators, being based on past data. Also more often than not, these indicators end up trapping traders on the wrong side of the market.
As a result, the bullish outlook put forward by that MA crossover needs validation in the form of a quick move above the lower high of 0.036 printed on March 6. That would open the doors to a sustained move higher toward 0.04. |
Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder Thomas Lee, who had said in December that he would stop giving timeframes for a price rebound, is back on the wires claiming the bitcoin market could return within six months.
"I think the key number to watch is the 200-day moving average. If Bitcoin holds above $4,000, it'll cross its 200-day moving average by August," Lee said while speaking to CNBC.
As of writing, BTC is trading $1000 below the 200-day MA of $4,859. Also, the cryptocurrency is yet to invalidate the most basic of all technical patterns - a lower high, lower low. So, it is too early to say if price will rise above the key average in August.
That said, bitcoin has a tendency to pick up a strong bid a year before the mining reward halving. So, bitcoin could cross the 200-day MA in August, confirming a bull reversal, as the next mining reward halving is due in May 2020. |
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| Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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Volume Expansion