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The Case for Deeper Pullback Strengthens
BTC: Price: $5,040 | MCAP: $89.63 billion | 24-Hr Volume: $11.93 billion
Short-term trend: Bearish
Bitcoin created a bearish outside reversal candle yesterday, which occurs when the price action on a particular day engulfs the high and low of the preceding day.
As the name suggests, that candle is widely considered an early sign of bullish-to-bearish trend change.
That said, traders usually wait for a strong follow-through, preferably a UTC close below the low of the bearish outside reversal candle.
So, a deeper drop could be in the offing, possibly to the 30-day moving average, currently located around $4,550, if prices find acceptance under $4,948.
That looks likely as the immediate bullish case has weakened courtesy of the repeated failure to close above the three-day chart 100-candle MA. The 5- and 10-day MAs have produced a bearish crossover, validating the last week’s doji candle – a sign of bull exhaustion.
The outlook would turn bullish if prices close above $4,192 today, invalidating yesterday's outside reversal candle.
Long-term trend: Bullish
The longer-run bearish-to-bullish trend change signaled by the falling channel breakout on the weekly chart would remain valid as long as the price is holding above $4,527 – the support of the upper edge of that bearish channel.
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Bitcoin Cash Stands As Lone Vigil BCH: Price: $314 | MCAP: $5.6 billion | 24-Hr Volume: 2.5 billion
Short-term trend: Pullback from resistance
The latest developments in the bitcoin cash world sees bitcoin cash SV delisted from the Binance exchange which has rippled across the crypto community and has seen a divestment away from the SV variant to the ABC version.
Still is it enough to push beyond the initial red zone created by a weekly gap between $421 and $324?
The RSI reads barely bullish above 50 at 51.05 while momentum appears to be lacking for an initial breakout above $324 in the coming hours, meaning a retracement below and a test of the sloping trendline could be in on the table.
Long-term trend: Neutral
The bulls need to maintain prices above the Dec. 17 breakout high of $232 or risk jeopardising the recently won bullish higher high, higher low market structure that continues to draw savvy investors in.
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Nebulas Takes A Dive NAS: Price: $1.28 | MCAP: $73.65 million | 24-Hr Volume: 102.2 million
Short-term trend: Bear biased
Anaemic volume for NAS on the hourly chart which has led to a gradual sell-off of around 10.11 percent over a 24-hour period thereby remaining consistent with the bearish April 15 breakdown felt from the descending triangle yesterday.
Price has moved below the 100-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart and hints at further drawdown in the days to come should it consistently close below that line.
Long-term trend: Neutral
NAS is currently finding its footing along the Nov. 18 wick supports at $1.23 on the weekly chart and has been long overdue for a higher low since its 160 percent rise on the new year.
The structure remains bullishly intact as long as it manages to maintain a hold above $1.04, but is still tentative given the recent market reaction to bitcoin's latest dip toward $5,000.
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@VinnyLingham put out a series of tweets earlier this month explaining why bitcoin’s sudden move to highs above $5,000 may be the beginning of just another bubble and how broader market decoupling from bitcoin would be an advance indicator of a sustainable bull run.
The leading cryptocurrency jumped past key resistance at $4,236 on April 2 and clocked highs above $5,300 last week, confirming a longer duration bull reversal.
The altcoins, however, have moved higher in tandem – that is evident from bitcoins' dominance rate or the share of the total market, which has remained largely unchanged at 52 percent.
Put simply, investors are merely seeing the sudden rise in bitcoin as just another opportunity to make a quick buck via altcoins. So, the latest leg higher could be the beginning of just another bubble, as stated by @VinnyLingham.
A sign of sustained bull run would be a sharp rise in bitcoin's dominance rate along with the price rally. That would mean the money is staying in the bitcoin market for a long haul and individual fundamentals are having more say in determining altcoin prices. |
Bitcoin has created a bear flag pattern – a continuation pattern that usually accelerates the preceding move – on the hourly chart.
So, @ChartChampions is right in stating that the breakdown, if confirmed, would be followed by a sell-off equivalent to the height of the pole (magnitude of the preceding bearish move).
As of writing, BTC is chipping away at the lower edge of the flag, currently at $,5060. A break lower would confirm a flag breakdown and create room for a sell-off to $4,870 (target as per the measured move method). |
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| Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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Pullback Ahead