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Potential Double Top
BTC: Price: $7,565 | MCAP: $134 billion | 24-Hr Volume: $25.18 billion
Short-term trend: Correction underway
Bitcoin's slow drip pullback from ten-month highs above $8,300 continues with the price currently trading on the defensive below $7,600, having dived out of a contracting triangle on Wednesday, as expected.
With the range breakdown, Monday's bearish hammer candle has gained credence. Further, key indicators like the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram and the relative strength index (RSI) are reporting bearish conditions on both the daily and 4-hour charts.
As a result, prices could drop to $7,200 (May 18 low) in the next couple of days. A UTC close below that level would confirm a double top breakout – a short-term bullish-to-bearish trend change. That would open the doors for a slide to $6,070 (target as per the measured height method).
The outlook, however, would turn bullish if the price finds acceptance above $8,050 (Wednesday's high) in the next 24 hours.
Long-term trend: Bullish
Bitcoin bounced up sharply from the 5-week moving average (MA) last week and closed on a positive note, reinforcing the bullish view put forward by that ascending average.
There have also been two bullish crossovers in the last week: one of the 5- and 100-week MAs, and another of the 10- and 50-week MAs, suggesting the path of least resistance is to the higher side.
Further, the cryptocurrency is trading well above the historically strong resistance of the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, validating the bearish-to-bullish trend change signaled by the violation of bearish lower highs pattern seen on April 2.
Also, supporting the longer run bullish case is the two-week MACD histogram's positive turn, the first since February 2018. Further, the 14-week relative strength index (RSI) is holding well above the key resistance range of 53.00–55.00.
The longer run bullish outlook would be neutralized if the price finds acceptance below the 200-day MA, currently at $4,468.
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Huobi Token Trends North HT: Price: $2.83 | MCAP: $140.6 million | 24-Hr Volume: $264.3 million
Short-term trend: Bullish HT is up 4.86 percent over a 24-hour period and is one of today's best performing crypto among the top 100 at CoinMarketCap, up a further 5.65% over a 7-day period.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) shows an uptick in buying pressure, an indication demand has been steadily increasing since March, while the RSI has hit overbought once again, hinting at a short-term pullback.
Long-term trend: Bullish
The month-long pullback that lasted from April 1 to May 6 succeeded in remaining above the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level at $2.35 (also known as a pivot point) meaning conditions are firmly bullish while prices continue to print new highs.
The current weekly candle looks promising for the bulls as it pushed 6 percent higher than the previous candle close, meaning a stronger case for continuation can be made should it surpass $3.11 on strong volume in the coming days.
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Up and Down ENJ: Price: $0.15 | MCAP: $125.8 million | 24-Hr Volume: $29.9 million
Short-term trend: Neutral-bearish
Yesterday's bearish breakdown saw prices fall 12 percent in value after a well defined support line at $0.16 was compromised and closed beneath, ending a small rally that begun on May 21 and finished late yesterday evening at 21:00 UTC.
Declining levels of volume and a bearish RSI also pin point to a neutral-bearish outlook as the rest of the markets fall alongside bitcoin's recent dips. A break back above $0.16 would be enough to sure up investor confidence for another attempt beyond $0.19, but that looks unlikely at this stage.
Long-term trend: Bullish
The larger timeframes for ENJ, such as the weekly or monthly charts, reveal a much more favorable outcome for the bulls
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@cryptoFib is cheering the fact that bitcoin price’s 200-day moving average (MA) is beginning to curl upwards in favor of the bulls for the first time since May 2018.
This is indeed a major development in the sense that the 200-day MA is widely considered a barometer of the bull/bear market.
So, with bitcoin currently trading well above the 200-day, currently at $4,590, and the key MA now turning higher, we can say that the leading cryptocurrency is in a bull market.
That said, the 200-day MA is lagging indicator and has limited predictive powers at best. So, a rising 200-day MA does not necessarily mean the price will rise further and the price could fall back to the average, as mentioned by @cryptoFib. |
@juthica is arguing here that derivative instruments on hashrate could help miners hedge against risks arising from fluctuations in the key metric.
Hashrate is the speed at which a computer is completing an operation in the blockchain code.
It is worth noting that hashrate, difficulty and miner's profits depend on each other in a number of ways. For instance, a rise in hashrate in a falling market will take a toll on mining profitability, as the cost of mining will rise in line with the difficulty increases caused by increasing hash rates.
So, @juthica is right in drawing parallels between the weather and price risks faced by agriculture producers and the risks faced by miners.
The bitcoin hash rate derivative market could be similar to the existing market for weather derivatives or can also take the form of traditional crop insurance market. |
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| Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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Slow Drip Pullback