Why a Fed hold today might be worse than a hike

The Clarity Act is dead for 2026. Bitcoin ETFs just had their worst outflow day since June. And the Fed hike everyone expected might not be the biggest risk — a surprise hold could be. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ SPONSORED BY Wednesday, September 16, 2026   The Clarity Act is dead for 2026. The Senate fell about 10 votes short of the 60 needed yesterday, with seven Democrats who spent months negotiating the text ultimately voting no. XRP is down 7.54% this morning, Stellar fell nearly 10% overnight, and bitcoin ETFs just logged their worst single-day outflow since June — $450 million out the door. Bitcoin itself is holding near $76,220, relatively resilient compared to the regulatory-sensitive altcoins. Attention now shifts to the Federal Reserve rate decision at 2pm ET today. Markets have a 92.5% probability of a 25 basis-point hike priced in — but analysts say a surprise hold might actually be the more disruptive outcome. Bitcoin has also decoupled from the Dollar Index and U.S. stocks, which complicates how any trader hedges into the decision. Stay alert. Read today’s full report → Market snapshot As of 8am EST Asset Price 24h BTC $76,220 −0.90% ETH $2,420 −2.24% SOL $97.96 −2.83% XRP $1.30 −7.54% Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. A message from RealFi Most stablecoins leave capital sitting still. RealFi is different. It connects on-chain capital to real-world markets like US Treasuries, money market funds, and private credit. Real transparency. Real impact. RealFi. RealFi is launching August 2026. Join the Testnet now at realfi.co Find out more CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 3 Bitcoin has decoupled from the dollar and stocks — just before the Fed decision Bitcoin’s short-window correlation with the Dollar Index has collapsed to nearly zero, down from −0.54 over the past 30 days, while its link to the S&P 500 has fallen to 0.43 from 0.75 and to the Nasdaq to 0.30 from 0.60, per CoinMarketCap research head Alice Liu. The disconnect is being attributed to last week’s Clarity Act focus, which pulled traders’ attention away from macro drivers — and it has direct consequences for positioning: any hedge that worked on Monday, like shorting index futures against a long bitcoin book, is now unreliable. Prices have broken below the $76,000 range that held for 24 days, which chart analysts call a bearish range breakdown. The Fed decision at 2pm ET is the day’s main event, but Liu warns that today’s FOMC reaction may be “swamped by regulatory follow-through” from the Clarity Act failure. Read more → Markets   Story 2 of 3 Traders are bracing for a Fed hike — but a surprise hold could be the bigger shock Markets are pricing a 92.5% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at today’s Fed meeting — the first in three years — meaning the hike itself is largely old news. What traders are actually watching is whether a surprise hold would signal something more alarming: that policymakers see risks the market doesn’t. Talos data shows investors have shifted 28% net toward stablecoins in the lead-up, compared to an average 8% selling tilt into previous Fed meetings, while bitcoin buying conviction has dropped from 10% to 3% and ether from 23% to 9%. Leverage across bitcoin futures and perpetuals remains below its yearly average, which means a rate-driven selloff is unlikely to cascade into a liquidation wave — but the bigger risk, per K33 Research, is that sidelined stablecoin capital stays on the sidelines if Warsh signals more hikes ahead. Read more → Markets   Story 3 of 3 Bitcoin ETFs shed $450 million — their worst day since June — as the Clarity Act fails U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $450 million in net outflows on Tuesday, their heaviest single-day exit since June 25, after the Senate fell roughly 10 votes short of the 60 needed to advance the Clarity Act — with seven Democrats who had spent months negotiating the text ultimately voting no. The bill’s failure effectively ends any prospect of U.S. crypto market structure legislation clearing the Senate this year, with Congress expected to be under split control in January. XRP fell 8.1% and Stellar dropped 9.6% over 24 hours as the regulatory-sensitive tokens took the sharpest hit; 95 of the CoinDesk 100 constituents lost value. Bitcoin dropped just 1.7% by comparison. Futures worth $570 million were liquidated — the most since Aug. 22 — and the taker long-short ratio flipped bearish at 51.5% shorts. Arbitrum was the standout exception, gaining 16% after Standard Chartered forecast ARB reaching $10 by 2030. Read more → CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? 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Clarity Falls Short. Now What?

September 22 - Washington, D.C. ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­  

What comes next after Clarity's failure? The industry’s most important leaders will be discussing this very question next Tuesday, September 22, at CoinDesk: Policy & Regulation in Washington, D.C.   What can the regulators do to establish frameworks that companies can use before the administration turns over? This is the first gathering of key public officials and private sector leaders following today's vote. Don't miss your chance to be in the most important room in D.C. for crypto regulation. Register Now Keynote Speakers Include: Register Now Thank you to our sponsors: Interested in sponsoring CoinDesk: Policy & Regulation? Contact Us CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences

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