The peace trade is over. CPI drops this morning.

Trump reinstated the Hormuz blockade. Oil hit $85. Rate-hike odds are at 40%. CPI drops this morning. Bitcoin is holding at $62,600. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ SPONSORED BY Tuesday, July 14, 2026   The peace trade is over. President Trump reinstated the U.S. blockade of Iranian ships through the Strait of Hormuz — closed for 136 days — and imposed a 20% fee on all other cargo moving through the waterway. Brent crude jumped 2.8% to around $85 a barrel, a second straight day of gains. The 2-year Treasury yield pushed back to 4.28% as markets priced a 40% chance of a Fed rate hike this month. Bitcoin has held near $62,600 but the macro tailwinds that drove the early July recovery have been reversed. The one event that can flip the script: June CPI, dropping this morning. Expected: headline inflation 3.8% year-on-year, core steady at 2.9%. A soft print eases the pressure. A hot one, with oil already climbing, stacks two hawkish signals ahead of the July 28–29 FOMC. And while markets wrestle with macro: prediction markets just had their biggest month ever, with over $50 billion in World Cup volume that crushed traditional sportsbooks. Read today’s full report → Market snapshot As of 9am EST Asset Price 24h BTC $62,600 −0.30% ETH $1,783 +0.60% SOL $77.80 −1.50% XRP $1.07 −1.20% Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. A message from RealFi Most stablecoins leave capital sitting still. RealFi is different. It connects on-chain capital to real-world markets like US Treasuries, money market funds, and private credit. Real transparency. Real impact. RealFi. RealFi is launching August 2026. Join the waitlist at realfi.co. Join the waitlist CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 3 U.S.–Iran escalation weighs on bitcoin and stocks as oil climbs. Bitcoin has fallen over the past 24 hours to around $62,600 as traders exited riskier positions following the revival of open U.S.–Iran hostilities. Brent crude is up nearly 4% in the period and reached a four-week high after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. air base in Jordan and the U.S. attacked Iranian targets for five hours in a battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump then reinstated the U.S. blockade of Iranian ships through the Strait — de facto closed for 136 days — and added a 20% fee on all other cargo passing through. The move reignited the so-called Nacho trade (Not a Chance Hormuz Opens), with Polymarket odds of the strait reopening by year-end falling from 65% to 56%. The broader CoinDesk 20 Index lost 0.6%. European equities fell about 1%, U.S. index futures 0.3%. Higher oil raises near-term inflation expectations, pushes Treasury yields up, and reduces the scope for easier monetary policy — a combination that has weighed on bitcoin at every oil shock this cycle. The 2-year Treasury yield reached 4.28%, and markets now price a 36–40% probability of a Fed rate hike at the July 28–29 FOMC meeting. That shifts the balance of risk for today’s June CPI release (expected: headline 3.8% year-on-year, −0.1% month-on-month; core 2.9%). A soft print reduces the rate-hike fear the Iran news just injected. A hot print, with oil already climbing, stacks two hawkish signals two weeks before the Fed convenes. Warsh is also testifying to Congress today — his tone on rates will be closely parsed. Bitcoin’s weekly chart still sits in the $59,000–$66,000 range; resistance above is at $66,000 and $68,900. Read more → Finance   Story 2 of 3 Prediction markets just crushed traditional sportsbooks in a $50 billion World Cup breakout. The 2026 FIFA World Cup just confirmed that prediction markets have left traditional sportsbooks behind. Kalshi posted $31 billion in total notional trading volume in June — a 70%+ jump from May — with World Cup-specific volume reaching $22.42 billion. Polymarket’s international exchange set a new monthly record at $10.8 billion, while its regulated U.S. platform separately logged $3.5 billion, nearly double May’s total. Rothera, the joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group that only launched in June, processed $2 billion in its debut month and already holds a 7% U.S. market share. For comparison, U.S. legal sportsbooks are projected to handle $2.8–$4.3 billion across the tournament’s 104 matches — Kalshi’s World Cup-specific markets alone generated $7.4 billion in June before the group rounds were complete. The user growth was equally striking: Kalshi’s daily active users were 36% above their June 15 level by June 30, while DraftKings fell 36% from its tournament peak, FanDuel dropped 41% and BetMGM and Caesars each declined 32%. Kalshi and Polymarket combined for 78.5% of betting app installs across the six major platforms tracked by Apptopia — versus roughly 6% a year earlier. Female users on Kalshi grew 106% during the tournament, more than double the 54% growth among male users. Perhaps most significantly: sportsbook users increasingly tried Kalshi during the tournament, while Kalshi users’ rate of opening sportsbook apps declined. The theory that prediction markets would be a feeder for traditional sports betting has not held. Read more → Markets   Story 3 of 3 Bitcoin holds $62,600 as the Iran conflict reignites and CPI looms. Bitcoin traded near $62,600 on Tuesday, down 0.3% over 24 hours and roughly flat on the week, holding remarkably steady given the macro deterioration underneath it. President Trump reinstated the U.S. blockade of Iranian ships through the Strait of Hormuz and imposed a 20% transit fee on all other cargo — a move that sent Brent crude as high as $85 a barrel and revived the rate-hike trade. The 10-year Treasury yield remains above 4.6%. Markets now price a 40% chance of a Fed hike at the July meeting, up from the low 20s a week ago. The peace trade that drove bitcoin’s recovery from late-June lows near $58,000 is now fully unwinding. Despite the geopolitical pressure, bitcoin has not broken down: it has spent a month between $59,000 and $66,000, and the current hold near $62,600 reflects a market in equilibrium — buyers stepping in at the range floor, sellers capping at the range ceiling. Ether held near $1,783 and has outperformed on the week. Solana, XRP and Hyperliquid are all down 5% or more over seven days. The altcoin-to-bitcoin ratio on the weekly chart has stagnated after failing to break above resistance — no clear momentum for alts relative to BTC, and no sign of a directional change in the near term. The U.S. government moved $288 million in seized BTC and ETH to Coinbase Prime on Monday, a structural supply event that bears watching. June CPI data is the most important real-time input of the day. If it comes in soft, rate-hike odds fall and BTC gets relief. If it runs hot — especially with oil at a four-week high — the pressure intensifies heading into the July 28–29 FOMC. Read more → CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences

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Did memecoins just hijack Robinhood's blockchain?

Robinhood built a blockchain for tokenized stocks. Memecoins took over. Transfer agents are lobbying the SEC to stop it. And Zcash is preparing for the quantum era. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ SPONSORED BY Monday, July 13, 2026 Robinhood built a blockchain for tokenized stocks. Memecoins took over. Robinhood Chain launched July 1 as an Arbitrum L2 built for tokenized equities — the next infrastructure layer for its Everything Exchange ambitions. Two weeks later it has $135 million in total value locked and 800,000 wallet addresses, but almost none of that activity is in tokenized stocks. Memecoins dominate: HOOD, VLAD, HOOD2025, and dozens of others launched within hours of the chain going live and quickly overtook the platform's intended use case. The irony is sharp — Robinhood's brand was built on democratizing stock trading, and its chain is being used to recreate the exact speculative casino its founders said they wanted to disrupt. The tokenized stock use case isn't dead, but it's being crowded out by faster, noisier demand. Read more → A message from RealFi Most stablecoins leave capital sitting still. RealFi is different. It connects on-chain capital to real-world markets like US Treasuries, money market funds, and private credit. Real transparency. Real impact. RealFi. RealFi is launching August 2026. Join the waitlist at realfi.co. Join the waitlist CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Research · Sponsored by Zcash Building the Zcash machine: Tachyon and quantum readiness Zcash's Tachyon upgrade is the protocol's most ambitious overhaul yet — designed to scale shielded payments, harden the network against quantum computing attacks, and stress-test whether its funding model and governance can hold under pressure. CoinDesk Research examines how the upgrade positions Zcash ahead of the quantum computing threat that most blockchains are only beginning to take seriously, and what the outcome means for privacy-preserving infrastructure at scale. Read more → Policy Wall Street transfer agents lobby SEC, warning that third-party tokens pose risks to market integrity The Securities Transfer Association — the industry group representing Wall Street's transfer agents, the firms that officially track stock ownership — has submitted a comment letter to the SEC arguing that third-party tokenized representations of equities should receive different regulatory treatment than company-authorized tokenization. Their core argument: only issuer-sanctioned tokens should count as legitimate ownership records, while tokens minted by third parties like Robinhood, Coinbase, or offshore exchanges create a parallel and legally ambiguous claims structure that could undermine market integrity. The fight is a preview of the next major regulatory battle in tokenized finance — who gets to define what constitutes valid equity ownership on-chain. Read more → Know someone who should be reading this? Share this newsletter See all of CoinDesk’s newsletters    CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York,NY,10011,USA, Unsubscribe Manage Preferences   Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.

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