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Bearish Lower Highs Intact
BTC: Price: $10,530 | MCAP: $188 billion | 24-Hr Volume: $15.71 billion
Short-term trend: Bearish
Bitcoin remains on the defensive with prices holding well below $11,080. A break above that level would activate twin bullish cues: invalidation of lower highs and an inverse head-and-shoulders breakout on the 4-hour chart.
A move above $11,080, however, looks unlikely as the widely followed indicators like the moving average convergence divergence histogram have turned bearish on the 4-hour chart, a sign the bounce from the last week's low of $9,049 (Bitstamp prices) has ended.
Also, the MACD histogram on the 3-day chart is reporting bearish conditions for the first time since December.
BTC, therefore, risks falling below $10,000 in the next day or two. As noted earlier, a move above $11,080 would invalidate the bearish setup, however, a weekly close or consecutive daily close above $12,000 is needed to confirm a continuation of the bull market.
Long-term trend: Bullish
Bitcoin closed last month with 25.89 percent gains, confirming a five-month winning streak, which is the longest since 2017.
With the double-digit gains, the cryptocurrency further cemented the falling channel breakout witnessed in April. The 5- and 10-month moving averages are trending north, indicating a bullish setup. As a result, the path of least resistance is to the higher side, more so, as the cryptocurrency is set to undergo mining reward halving sometime in May 2020.
Hence, investors may view any pullback to levels near $8,000, as just another chance to get involved in the bull market.
The outlook will remain bullish as long as prices are held above the 200-day moving average, currently lined up just below $6,000.
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Ravencoin Takes Flight RVN: Price: $0.0524 | MCAP: $212.4 million | 24-Hr Volume: $22.9 million
Short-term trend: Cautiously bullish
RVN is up 12.23 percent on the day and is one of the best performing crypto in the top 100 at CoinMarketCap after climbing north for its 6th day in a row.
Price action has been weaker, courtesy of smaller sized daily candles coupled with modest levels of volume, however the awesome oscillator is nearing the neutral 0 line and would trigger a buy signal should it pass above.
Long-term trend: Bullish
The RSI has regained a footing above neutral 50 (53.45) as well as a solid defense of the $0.0379 resistance-flipped-to-support zone hinting at a continual recovery from its recent pullback. Only a firm close below the aforementioned R/S zone would jeopardise the bullish long-term outlook.
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| Bitcoin Gold Flashing Red BTG: Price: $26.54 | MCAP: $435.8 million | 24-Hr Volume: $13.1 million
Short-term trend: Neutral
Tentative times for BTG which is down 5.11 percent on the day after a bearish close on July 21 saw an end to its recent defense along the $25.92 support zone.
That will most likely spur another retest of that area by days close whereby a firm close above or below could set the tone for the remainder of the week.
Long-term trend: Cautiously bullish
Its bullish market structure remains in tact and has now consolidated above $25 for over 49 days, marking a conclusion to the minimal range produced over the last 6 weeks. A firm close below $23.82 would openly threaten its long-term bullish prospects coupled with an already bearish trending daily RSI and decreasing volume.
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Popular cryptocurrency trader @BigChonis believes bitcoin's recovery from the previous week's lows below of $9,100 lacks substance due to low trading volumes.
Notably, the 12-hour chart shows a bearish volume divergence, which occurs when volumes drop (or chart lower highs), contradicting bullish higher lows and higher highs on price.
A low-volume recovery, especially if it occurs following a notable price drop, often ends up being a dead cat bounce – a temporary recovery caused by speculators covering their short positions.
So, it is not surprising that BTC failed to invalidate the bearish lower highs pattern with a convincing break above $11,000 over the weekend and could revisit sub-$10,000 levels in the next few hours.
Volume holds the key
A high volume reduces liquidity risk. It indicates more people want bitcoins in their portfolio and could be considered a sign of increased investor confidence.
Put simply, a rising volume means a greater reliance can be placed on the movement in price than if there was low volume.
Seasoned traders often take confirmation of a bull or bear breakout/trend from volume charts. A low-volume breakout or breakdown is widely considered a bull or bear trap.
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| Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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Low-Volume Lift