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Probing Key Support After Range Breakdown
BTC: Price: $3,890 | MCAP: $69.55 billion | 24-Hr Volume: $10.66 billion
Short-term trend: Bearish
Bitcoin is sitting just above the 30-day moving average (MA) support at $3,833, having dived out of the recent trading range of $3,920-$4,055.
That MA line, which served as strong support at least three times over the last three weeks, may not hold ground this time, as yesterday's close below $3,920 reinforced the bearish view put forward by the bearish outside reversal candle created on March. 21.
Further, the repeated failure to scale $4,000 in a convincing manner followed by the drop below $3,920 validates the bearish view put forward by the historically strong resistance of the downward sloping 21-week moving average (MA).
A break below the 30-day MA at $3,883, if confirmed, would open the doors for a deeper drop toward the key support levels lined up at $3,775 and $3,658.
The bearish case, however, would weaken if the price bounces up strongly from the 30-day line. That said, a UTC close above $4,055 is needed to revive the bullish view.
Long-term trend: Neutral
The long-term outlook will remain neutral as long as prices are trapped between the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) support and the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $3,404 and $4,106, respectively. A weekly close (Sunday, UTC) above the 200-week EMA would confirm a bearish-to-bullish trend change.
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Bitshares' Break Higher BTS: Price: $0.0.6 | MCAP: $165.9 million | 24-Hr Volume: $108.6 million
Short-term trend: Neutral-pullback
The Feb. 5 move above the 100-period MA remains in tact and has yet to dip to a significant lower low on the daily chart.
The RSI is currently trending in overbought territory, an indication of an imminent pullback, that idea is supported by a new low on the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), while overhead resistance along the 200-period MA is proving to be a nuisance for the bulls to clear.
Long-term trend: Bullish potential
Given recent candle ranging seen March 25 when the markets pulled back from a bitcoin sell-off, the volatility is there and the market structure of higher highs has yet to be compromised.
Only a consistent rejection from the 200-period MA would elevate the cause for concern.
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| Crypto.com Chain Couldn't Hold On CRO: Price: 0.00001310 BTC | MCAP: $222.5 million | 24-Hr Volume: $2.2 million
Short-term trend: Bearish
CRO stands as one of the worst performers post bitcoin sell-off seen March 25 causing the exponential lines (26, 55) to cross bearish, hinting at increasing selling pressure backed by the Chaikin Money Flow below the neutral 0 line. Long-term trend: Bear biased
The RSI could provide a recovery rally but momentum is currently (and has been for some time) lacked investor interest seen in the form of total volume.
And with the uncertainty of the primary market trend its harder still to get a read on the directional bias, meaning there is a higher risk on an entry without further bullish technical signs.
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An extended period of low volatility or range bound trading essentially represents a tug of war between the bulls and the bears.
Range breakout or breakdown, therefore, is followed by a big move as the victorious party takes control of the market and the losing side tends to waits on the sidelines until a credible sign of trend exhaustion emerges.
Bitcoin’s average daily trading range so far in March is just $85, the lowest average range since the same metric recorded $32 in April of 2017, according to CoinDesk data.
As mentioned in the above tweet, the extreme low volatility seen in April 2017 was followed by a 65 percent rally.
On similar lines, the current low volatility period could end with a violent move, although the direction of that move could also be to the downside. |
IOTA/BTC is currently trading around 7430 sats on Binance, having trapped traders on the wrong side of the market with a fake inverse head-and-shoulders breakout on Mar. 21.
A breakout usually fails if it is not backed by surge in trading volumes.
IOTA's breakout, however, was accompanied by a jump in trading volumes to the highest level since August. Still, the follow-through was bearish.
That said, trading volumes have dropped significantly over the last four trading days. So, the pullback could be short-lived, however, a bullish reversal would be confirmed only above the March 22 high of 8108 sats. |
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| Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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Bulls Back Down