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Bullish Exhaustion
BTC: Price: $3,960 | MCAP: $7.74 billion | 24-Hr Volume: $9.14 billion
Short-term trend: Bearish
Bitcoin risks breaching its recent trading range of $3,920–$4,055 could be breached to the downside, as last week’s doji candle created at the key 21- week moving average resistance is signaling bullish exhaustion.
The case for the ranger breakdown looks stronger if we take into account the price action seen over the last five weeks. To start with, BTC hit a high of $4,190 and created a bullish inverted hammer candle in the third week of February – a sign the market is bottoming out. That candlestick is usually followed by a quick move to the higher side. In the last four weeks, however, BTC has failed to again challenge $4,190, weakening the bullish case.
A downside break of the trading range, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off toward the support levels lined up at $3,775 and $3,658.
On the higher side, a UTC close above $4,055 is needed to put the bulls back into the driver’s seat, although that looks unlikely at press time.
Long-term trend: Neutral
The long-term outlook will remain neutral as long as prices are trapped between the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) support and the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $3,404 and $4,106, respectively. A weekly close (Sunday, UTC) above the 200-week EMA would confirm a bearish-to-bullish trend change.
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Polymath Gets Technical POLY: Price: $0.14 | MCAP: $51.6 million | 24-Hr Volume: $94.8 million
Short-term trend: Short-term bullish
POLY is up an incredible 47.74 percent over a 48-hour period and may have some more run left yet as it attempts to reach the 161.8 percent Fibonacci extension point, a well defined area for taking profit. Today's volume has started out strong for the bulls but will need to continue on its current course in order to sustain any pushes higher.
Upon reaching the aforementioned extension point, consider a pullback as traders seek a return on their investment.
Long-term trend: Bullish potential
The daily RSI has hit its highest point since Oct 29, 2018, a sign that conditions are overbought and may halt any further advances beyond the take profit zone (marked orange) in the mid-term. That would not impact a change in trend from bearish to bullish so long as it doesn't jeopardize the significant higher low market structure that has been on-going for 23 days now.
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REPO Eyes A Further Drop REPO: Price: $0.5 | MCAP: $58.9 million | 24-Hr Volume: $72.3 million
Short-term trend: Neutral-Cautiously bearish
REPO is currently moving to test the 100-period moving average on the daily chart and is down 12.97 percent over a 24-hour period.
It's currently bleeding in value backed by a modest showing in falling (bearish) volume, hinting at the legitimacy behind the move and a contentious period for REPO bag holders.
Long-term trend: Neutral Market structure is still bullish since breaking out on Dec. 22, 2018. However, a failure to hold the 78-day channel and a loss of the 100 MA would not bode well for the bulls looking to cement this zone as a region of strong support.
Especially if the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) fails to maintain above the neutral 0 line, indicating a swing in momentum to the bears for the mid to long-term.
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POLY/BTC is currently trading at 3111 sats - down 4 percent on a 24-hour basis - having hit a 2.5-month high 3769 sats earlier today.
The pullback is likely associated with the extreme overbought conditions seen in the Asian trading hours. The 14-day RSI was at the highest level since October, as mentioned in the above tweet.
With the pullback, however, the RSI has fallen back below 70.00. Further, the 5- and 10-day moving averages (MAs) are now trending north. So, the pair may bounce up from the former resistance-turned-support of 2887 sats (Mar. 13 high). A UTC close below that level would invalidate the bullish setup. |
As tweeted by @JonnyMoeTrades, ZEC/BTC is probing the upper edge of the two-year falling wedge - a bullish reversal pattern.
A high-volume close above that resistance would confirm a long-term bearish-to-bullish trend change. That could happen in the near future as ZEC is set to undergo mining reward halving in 2020 and markets usually begin pricing in the impending supply cuts well in advance.
That said, the price of ZEC price greatly depends on the overall market sentiment, which means that it will be heavily influenced by action in bitcoin's price.
Note that Zcash block rewards are halved every 4 years, similar to that of bitcoin. The first block was mined in late 2016. |
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| Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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Market In Stasis