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Buyer Exhaustion
BTC: Price: $5,000 | MCAP: $88 billion | 24-Hr Volume: $21.66 billion
Short-term trend: Neutral
Bitcoin witnessed a sharp drop to $4,800 within two hours of hitting highs above $5,300 at 21:00 UTC yesterday and is now struggling to hold onto price points above $5,000.
The price action validates the extreme overbought readings on the 14-day relative strength index (RSI). The widely-followed indicator is currently seen at 89.00 – the highest level since December 2017.
So, a price pullback, possibly to $4,700, could be seen in a day or two.
Supporting the case for correction is the bearish divergence of the hourly chart RSI and the high-volume bearish engulfing candle created on the 4-hour chart yesterday.
The short-term outlook, however, would turn bullish if prices rise above $5,080 on the back of strong volumes.
Long-term trend: Bullish
Bitcoin invalidated the longer-run bearish lower highs, lower lows pattern with a convincing move above $4,236 (Dec. 24 high) earlier this week.
The longer term outlook, therefore, will remain bullish while prices are trading above that former resistance-turned-support. Validating that argument are the ascending 5- and 10-week moving averages and the fact that BTC is trading above the 50-, 100- and 200-day MAs for the first time since January 2018.
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Doge Doesn't Sit DOGE: Price: $0.003609 | MCAP: $444.6 million | 24-Hr Volume: 102.2 million
Short-term trend: Bullish
On April 2 we previously discussed DOGE's potential for consolidation after its initial breakout due bearish outliers on the daily chart at the time (buying exhaustion, weaker intra-day candle closes, bearish RSI divergence etc).
However, DOGE continues to defy expectations as it takes the winning mantle among the top 100 crypto at CoinMarketCap once more - up 17 percent over a 24-hour period.
It now looks set to try its hands at the 161.8 percent Fibonacci extension zone (a common area for taking profit).
Long-term trend: Cautiously bullish
The 4-day upward move has been fuelled by a large injection of growing (bullish) volume and demonstrates the largest uptick in investor interest since Aug. 31 of last year, thanks in part to Elon Musk's April Fool's joke which punted the price to 148-day highs.
Further, it has passed a key long-term moving average that demonstrates bullish price action above, while conversely greater bearish conditions are about if price is below the red line - a positive sign overall for the DOGE bulls.
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Maximine Coin Biggest Single Day Dive MXM: Price: $0.0752 | MCAP: $4.65 billion | 24-Hr Volume: 2.27 billion
Short-term trend: Bearish below 26-EMA
Trouble is brewing for the hamstrung crypto which saw its largest single day loss since it was first listed on exchanges back in Aug. 2018.
Down a whopping 48 percent over a 24-hour period, MXM has blasted through Fibonacci supports in its attempt to find a local bottom.
Long-term trend: Neutral
The chaikin money flow index has topped out and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has rolled over from overbought territory, neutralizing the bullish outlook.
That said, a failure to hold the 26-period exponential moving average means the bears have not regained short-term momentum, driving it toward the 78.6 percent Fibonacci draw down.
Bulls will want to hold these levels, consolidate and then accumulate slowly to reverse the damage.
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TRX/BTC has faced increased selling pressures in the last 24 hours, as anticipated by @CoinDeskMarkets.
The cryptocurrency is currently trading at 522 sats on Binance, representing a 6 percent drop on a 24-hour basis. Prices hit a low of 502 sats yesterday – a level last seen on Jan. 2.
The bearish forecast was based on the big red engulfing candle created on Tuesday, which signaled a downside break of the month-long trading range of 550 sats-612 sats and the continuation of the sell-off from the January highs near 850 sats.
Looking forward, deeper drop could unfold if sellers manage to penetrate the support at 505 sats – the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rally from the November lows to the January highs.
The bearish case, however, would weaken if the price bounces up strongly from 505 sats, although a bullish reversal would be confirmed if and when TRX invalidate the bearish engulfing candle with a move above 627 sats. |
@Josh_Rager is referring to Reuters report released Tuesday, which said a single algorithmically managed order worth $100 million spread across several major exchanges – Coinbase and Kraken and Bitstamp – pushed bitcoin to 4.5-month highs above $5,000.
If indeed it was one buyer lifting the price higher, then a strong follow through with high volumes is needed to solidify the longer-run bull breakout above $4,236 seen this week.
If the follow-through falters in coming weeks, then BTC could fall all the way back to levels below $4,200. That would be a classic case of failed breakout – a strong sell signal – and could yield a deeper slide toward February lows near $3,300. |
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| Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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Bull Breather