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Longer-Term Bullish MA Crossover Confirmed
BTC: Price: $5,575 | MCAP: $98.77 billion | 24-Hr Volume: $16.24 billion
Short-term trend: Cautiously bullish
Bitcoin has set a new bullish higher high with a move to five month highs above $5,600 earlier today. The price rise is accompanied by the 50-day moving average's (MA) move above the 200-day MA.
The first golden cross since October 2015 confirms the longer run bearish to-bullish trend change first signaled by bitcoin's violation of the bearish lower highs and lower lows pattern on April 2.
As a result, BTC appears on track to test the crucial resistance at $6,000. The rally, however, may be preceded by a sudden price pullback, possibly to $5,000, as the long/short ratio on the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex has shed the bullish bias and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is reporting overbought conditions.
It is worth noting that golden crossovers are lagging indicators with limited predictive abilities and often trap buyers on the wrong side for the short-term, as seen in July 2015.
Hence, despite the bullish setup, there is merit in being cautious. A close today below $5,466 (April 10 high) would boost prospects of a corrective pullback.
Long-term trend: Bullish
Bitcoin's 14-week relative strength index (RSI) has moved above the key resistance range of 53.00–55.00, validating the longer-term bullish reversal signaled by a falling channel breakout witnessed two weeks ago.
Supporting the longer run bullish case is the two-week MACD histogram's positive turn, the first since February 2018.
The longer run bullish outlook would be neutralized if the price finds acceptance below the 200-day MA, currently at $4,482.
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ICON On A Charge ICX: Price: $0.42 | MCAP: 200.3 million | 24-Hr Volume: 35.1 million
Short-term trend: Bullish
The long term and short term moving averages (50, 200) have converged to form a golden cross on the daily chart for ICON signaling a strong bullish move that generally marks the beginning of a new bull run.
The key for the bulls now is to scale the $0.48 wick resistance which has denied price moving above that line since April 3 and will provide further indication on the next leg up.
Long-term trend: Bullish
Much of ICON's price action has managed to stay above the 200-daily moving average despite a strong temporary dip below on April 15 and will continue to provide hope for the bulls to fully see through the end of the bear market with continual higher highs.
Only a break of the bullish market structure of higher lows higher highs on the daily and weekly chart would jeopardize any hope of a full fledged reversal.
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MaidSafeCoin On The Defense MAID: Price: $0.13 | MCAP: $59 million | 24-Hr Volume: $543,387
Short-term trend: Neutral-Slight bearish
After dropping to a low of $0.11 on the Poloniex exchange, MAID has managed to claw back within an 80-day channel after dropping nearly 20 percent yesterday (April 22).
Price has dipped below the 50-period moving average (purple line) but the bulls are currently putting up a fight to hold the support along $0.13 and wrestle back control for the bulls above as any strong move below strengthens the drawdown potential back toward $0.11.
Long-term trend: Bearish below 200-period MA
The 200-period moving average (MA) continues to restrict upside in MAID, offering strong resistance for the beleaguered crypto at around $0.16 which, if scaled, would signal a significant shift toward the bulls, but until then we should consider MAID to be tentatively bid for the bulls.
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@Apompliano is right in stating that an ideal portfolio should have some exposure to bitcoin, as the world's leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization rarely develops strong longer-term correlations with traditional assets like the S&P 500 the global benchmark for equities.
One may argue that bitcoin is currently inversely correlated with gold, a classic safe haven asset. While that is true, the inverse correlation rarely holds ground for more than a few months.
Put simply, bitcoin's price is more dependent on its individual fundamentals, supply/demand metrics and technical developments and is seldom influenced by the global macros.
As a result, having exposure to bitcoin can prove beneficial, as the two-year performance comparison indicates.
Bitcoin has appreciated by a staggering 457 percent over the last two years, a staggering number when compared to the S&P 500's 19.9 percent gain.
Oil has gained 31 percent, while gold has ticked higher by just 1.3 percent. |
@Schuldensuehner is shedding light on the inverse relationship between gold and bitcoin – referred to as digital gold by many.
Gold is currently trading at $1,270-down 5.57 percent from the high of $1,346 hit on Feb. 20.
During the same time period, bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, bottomed out near $3,300 and confirming a long-run bearish-to-bullish trend change with a convincing move to five-month highs above $5,600.
No wonder, the 30-day correlation coefficient between the two is -40.
It is worth noting that the correlation does not imply causation. That said, this is not the first time that the two assets have moved in opposite directions.
Back in mid-November, gold picked up a strong bid near $1,200 and rose to highs above $1,300 over the next two months.
The yellow metal's rise was accompanied by the sell-off in bitcoin.
The crypto market leader fell below $6,000 – a level which was supposedly a longer-term bottom – on Nov. 14 reviving the sell-off from the record high of $20,000 reached in December 2017. |
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| Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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Golden Crossover