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June 2018 Bottom Capping Gains
BTC: Price: $5,630 | MCAP: $100 billion | 24-Hr Volume: $14.81 billion
Short-term trend: Neutral-to-bearish
Bitcoin found acceptance above $5,627 on Friday, bolstering both short-term and long-term technical setup. Even so, the June 2018 bottom of $5,780 proved a tough nut to crack over the weekend,
For instance, BTC clocked highs of $5,796 and $5,846 on Friday and Saturday, respectively, but closed below $5,780 on both days. Similar price action unfolded on Sunday, with BTC hitting a high of $5,782 before ending the day at $5,709.
The repeated failure at the key resistance has neutralized the immediate bullish setup – more so, as the 4-hour chart is reporting a double top pattern with the neckline support at $5,510 on the 4-hour chart. A break lower could yield re-test of the 30-day MA, currently at $5,294.
A strong bounce from the 30-day MA will likely yield a rally to $6,000, as the long-term charts are biased bullish.
Long-term trend: Bullish
Bitcoin closed last week above the historically strong resistance of the 50-week moving average (MA), further validating the bearish-to-bullish trend change signaled by the convincing break above $4,236 (Dec. 24 high) on April 2.
Supporting the longer run bullish case is the two-week MACD histogram's positive turn, the first since February 2018. Further, the 14-week relative strength index (RSI) has moved above above the key resistance range of 53.00–55.00.
The longer run bullish outlook would be neutralized if the price finds acceptance below the 200-day MA, currently at $4,482.
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MAID: Price: $0.14 | MCAP: $62.7 million | 24-Hr Volume: $362,299
Short-term trend: Neutral
Since Jan. 21, MAID has been trending higher on the weekly chart and has shown resilience in the face of a market pullback that saw a $100 drop in bitcoin's price that woke up the Monday markets.
The key for MAID now lies in the challenge of scaling and closing above a well defined resistance area between $0.15 and $0.16 to reverse the bear market trend and open up the opportunity to revisit former supports turned resistance at $0.17-$0.18.
Long-term trend: Bearish
Until MAID can surpass the aforementioned resistances above, the bears will continue to gain control over price, forcing it lower as it struggles to find a bid after a period of consolidation within the ascending triangle.
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What Goes Up... MXM: Price: $0.038 | MCAP: $59.6 million | 24-Hr Volume: $7.8 million
Short-term trend: Bearish
MXM's incredible 1380 percent run over a 46-day period beginning Feb. 15 and ending on April 3 came to a swift end on April 4 when its price capitulated 47.4 percent, lobbing considerable bearish momentum onto each subsequent move lower ever since.
The 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement zone reflects the last zone before a large gap opens up with no prior price history between supports leaving $0.019 exposed and the nearest likely resting point for the bulls should price continue to break down.
Long-term trend: Neutral
Only a complete loss of its recent bullish rally would signal that the bears have firmly wrestled back control, rather current market behaviour could be viewed as a period of profit taking with conditions fast approaching oversold on the RSI, meaning a bounce is possible.
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With price above the 89-week exponential moving average (EMA) and the 50-week MA, bitcoin's weekly chart is looking strongly bullish, according to @MustStopMurad.
The analysis holds ground as both moving averages worked as strong support and resistance levels during the previous price cycles. For instance, the 50-week MA hurdle had almost killed the nascent bull market in July-August 2015 and its upside break in October 2015 was followed by a 2.5-year-long bull market.
Other technical studies are also biased bullish. The 14-week relative strength index (RSI) has found acceptance above 53.00-55.00 band, which served as a base throughout the 2016-2017 bull market. What's more, a convincing move above $4,236 seen in April confirmed a transition from the bear-to-bull market.
So with weekly chart reporting bullish conditions, pullbacks, if any, in the near-term could be short-lived.
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Bitcoin rallied more than 25 percent last month, confirming a long-term bearish-to-bullish trend change.
The cryptocurrency had witnessed a similar rally in 2018 – prices had rallied from $7,000 to $10,000 only to reverse gains in the following months.
History, however, may not repeat itself, as the price surge seen last month seems to have put the bulls in a commanding position for a long haul. This is evident from the transition from the bearish lower highs, lows lower lows pattern to the bullish higher lows and higher highs pattern seen on the daily chart.
The technical setup was decisively bearish back in April-May 2018 with charts showing bearish lower highs, lower lows setup.
Further, the markets were coming off the crypto market frenzy of 2017 and digesting regulatory crackdown in countries like China and South Korea.
As of now, the focus is on pricing an impending supply cut (reward halving) due in May 2020. Put simply, BTC is unlikely to fall back to $4,000 this month.
That said, the price could end the current month with moderate losses, if the US-China trade tensions escalate, leading to risk aversion and a rally in gold. |
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| Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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Bullish Pause