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Mayer Multiple Calling Bull Frenzy
BTC: Price: $12,800 | MCAP: $227 billion | 24-Hr Volume: $32.50 billion
Short-term trend: Bullish
With bitcoin's rise to 17-month highs above $12,900, the ratio of the price and the 200-day average of the price – the Mayer multiple – has risen to 2.41.
Over the year it has been observed that a reading above 2.4 signifies the beginning of a temporary speculative bubble – a self feeding cycle of higher prices attracting more bids, leading to further price gains.
For instance, the Mayer multiple rose above 2.4 on Mar. 4, 2013, when the price was trading at $36.00, representing 176 percent gains over lows near $13 seen in December 2012. More importantly, the cryptocurrency rallied more than 600 percent to $259 in the following four weeks before falling all the way back to $45 on April 12.
Further, prices rose from $11,000 to $20,000 in 16 days following the ratio’s rise above 2.4 percent on Dec. 1, 2018. Again, the bubble was short-lived, with prices falling to $12,000 on Dec. 22.
So, if history is a guide, then the fear of missing out may kick (FOMO) in once the Mayer multiple finds acceptance above 2.40, leading to further price rise toward the record high of $20,000.
The short-term bullish outlook would be invalidated if and when the price finds acceptance below the May 31 high of $9,097.
Long-term trend: Bullish
BTC closed last month with 62 percent gains – the highest since August 2017 – reinforcing the falling wedge breakout confirmed by April's candle.
Further, the 5- and 10-month moving averages have produced a bullish crossover for the first time since September/October 2015.
The long-term bullish outlook would be invalidated if and when the price finds acceptance below May's low of $5,263.
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Qtum Rises Up QTUM: Price: $5.24 | MCAP: $540.9 million | 24-Hr Volume: $747.8 million
Short-term trend: Pullback
A hackathon for QTUM is taking place amid a bullish breakout from an ascending triangle on the daily chart, beginning June 24 and backed by a strong showing of bullish volume.
Up x percent over a 24-hour period, QTUM sets its sights on a period of profit taking, retracing its price to former wick resistances at $5.48, should the bulls concede today's candle due to overbought conditions on the daily RSI.
Long-term trend: Bullish
The Chaikin Money Flow is signaling a large amount of buying pressure in the market, however, that is beginning to show signs of peaking out at current levels. Should it remain above neutral 0 with the overall market structure of higher highs and higher lows to continue setting the primary bullish trend, then continuation to prior daily supports at $7.30
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Hits 4.5-Month Low LTC/BTC: Price: 10,878 sats | MCAP: 681.894 BTC | 24-Hr Volume: 382,497 BTC
Short-term trend: Bearish
Litecoin's BTC-denominated exchange rate fell to 10,409 sats earlier today, the lowest level since Feb. 8, extending the seventh-day losing streak.
LTC is set to undergo mining reward halving on Aug. 5. The process aimed at curbing inflation by reducing rewards for mining on litecoin's blockchain is repeated every four years tends to put a bid under thee cryptocurrency at least a few months in advance.
It is worth noting that litecoin's dollar-denominated exchange rate is currently up more than 550 percent from the lows near $22 seen in December. So, it seems safe to say that the halving rally has already played out.
Further, market is currently focused on bitcoin, which is trading at 17-month highs. As a result, LTC/BTC could continue to lose ground in the short-term. Corrective rallies if any will likely be reversed by the descending 10-day MA.
The bearish outlook would be neutralized once signs of bullish exhaustion emerge on BTC charts.
Long-term trend: Bullish
With price currently trading below 13,339 sats (May low), the long-term bias is bearish. A monthly close below that level would further cement bearish view and expose the next major support lined up near 8,200 sats.
The outlook would turn bullish if and when the price finds acceptance above the bearish lower high of 17,756 sats.
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@Josh_Ragers tweeted a bullish view on bitcoin 12 hours ago, when the cryptocurrency was trading at $11,800 and as called, prices almost tested $13,000 in early European trading hours.
As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $12,800.
The bullish call was based on the weekly chart, which shows a series of higher lows and higher highs and ascending 5- and 10-day moving averages. Further, the weekly Chaikin money flow shows strongest buying pressure since December 2016.
So, further upside could be in the offing. @JoshRager also believes a break above the resistance at $14,200 would expose the lifetime high of $20,000.
After all, the weekly chart shows there is no lower high or moving average located between $14,200 and $20,000 that could offer resistance. |
Cryptocurrencies’ adoption rate is highest in Turkey and lowest in Japan, according to Statista Global Consumer Survey.
Notably, the top four countries – Turkey, Brazil, Colombia and Argentina have been facing political or economic issues for almost a year now.
For instance, Turkey’s Lira fell to record lows against the US dollar in August last year. More importantly, Lira dropped 32 percent in the third quarter alone. The resulting currency crisis and inflation likely boosted demand for cryptocurrencies.
Meanwhile, the countries at the bottom, Japan and Germany, remain manufacturing powerhouses with stable currencies despite the US-China trade war.
The fact that cryptocurrencies have found love mainly in unstable nations validates arguments put forward by the likes of JPMorgan that cryptocurrencies will only have value in a dystopian economy. |
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| Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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17-Month Highs