Welcome to the weekly edition of the CoinDesk Markets newsletter!
Every Friday we will review our cryptocurrency price predictions posted during the week via CoinDesk Markets Twitter or our private room on StockTwits, the CoinDesk Dojo.
"Trades You Missed" will feature our favorite trade ideas or technical analysis insights that accomplished impressive gains, where as "Trades We Missed" will feature those that took a turn for the worse.
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RSI Signaled Rally
BTC/USD: Price: $11,620 | MCAP: $208 billion | Maximum Gain: +6.20%
Why we were intrigued:
Bitcoin’s price jumped above the psychological resistance of $10,000 on June 22, confounding many who were rooting for a price pullback following Facebook’s launch of its cryptocurrency Libra.
On the following day, the price struggled to post convincing break above $11,200 amid falling buy volumes and amid bearish divergence of the relative strength index (RSI).
As a result, the cryptocurrency looked set for a price pullback to levels below $10,000.
The price, however, broke up above $11,300 on June 25 on the back of growing buy volumes. Further, and more importantly, the RSI invalidated the bearish divergence with a move above the descending trendline, signaling bullish continuation.
Hence, our analyst called a bullish move to $20,000. After all, the fact that the bearish divergence of the RSI failed to yield any pullback and buy volumes surged with following RSI’s break above the descending trendline was a sign of strong bullish sentiment.
As expected, the top cryptocurrency rallied to $12,000 in the late U.S. trading hours on Wednesday and extended gains further to ht a 17-month high of $13,880 on Bitstamp.
BTC is currently trading at $11,870, having hit a low of $10,300 in the U.S. session yesterday. Despite the correction, the cryptocurrency is on track to end in the green for the fifth straight month – the longest winning streak since mid-2017. Further, BTC looks set to report double-digit gains for the third straight month.
Looking forward, prices could revisit recent highs over the weekend as the hourly chart is reporting a bearish channel breakout on the price. Further, the hourly chart RSI has violated the descending trendline, representing a bearish divergence.
Also, the long-term charts are biased bullish. So, the cryptocurrency will likely remain bid in the second half of this year. That said, the third quarter may begin on a sour note as the weekly chart indicators are reporting extreme overbought conditions. The Trade
 The Result  |
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Fake Breakout
XRP/USD: Price: $0.41 | MCAP: $17.60 billion | Maximum Gain: -4.25%
Why we were intrigued:
XRP/USD closed at $0.4675 in three days to June 23, confirming a contracting triangle breakout. The technical pattern implied resumption of the rally from lows near $0.30 seen at the end of April.
So, our analyst called a bullish move to highs above $0.56 seen in November 2018. The bullish view was based on assumption that investors would rotate money to alternative cryptocurrencies once bitcoin’s price rally looks overstretched.
The breakout, however, was short-lived and prices fell back to $0.40 by June 27 on the back of strong volumes as bitcoin’s prices fell from 17-month highs near $13,800 to $10,300.
The expected rotation of money into altcoins remains elusive, which could be considered a sign the investors don’t think BTC is overvalued and expect the top cryptocurrency to continue gaining ground in the near-term.
Meanwhile, XRP’s bullish short-term bullish outlook stands invalidated, courtesy of the failed breakout. The long-term moving average studies, however, remain biased toward the bulls.
For instance, the stacking order of the 50-day MA, above the 100-day MA, above the 200-day MA is classic long-term bull indicator.
XRP witnessed a golden crossover – a bullish crossover of the 50- and 200-day MAs at the end of May. Further, the 100-day MA moved above the 200-day MA earlier this month, confirming the path of least resistance is to the higher side.
All-in-all, all is not lost for the XRP bulls and the bullish case would remain intact as long as the price is held above $0.30. As of writing, the world’s third largest cryptocurrency by market value is trading at $0.41.
The Trade
The Result
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| Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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Bitcoin Bull Run