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One-Month Lows
BTC: Price: $9,450 | MCAP: $169.75 billion | 24-Hr Volume: $20.11 billion
Short-term trend: Bearish
Bitcoin is looking south, having dived out of a narrowing price range created in the 13 days to Aug. 27.
The breakdown is backed by the descending 5- and 10-day moving averages. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has also breached key support, as seen in the chart below, and is reporting bearish conditions with a below-50 print.
More importantly, selling volumes on the 4-hour surged to highest level since Aug. 7 as prices dived out of the contracting triangle.
All-in-all, the stage looks set for a slide to $9,000. A violation there would open the doors to $8,500.
The bearish case would be invalidated above Wednesday's high of $10,280, although as of now, that looks unlikely.
Long-term trend: Cautiously bullish
Bitcoin is down close to 30 percent from the 17-month high of $13,800 reached on June 26.
Prices, however, are holding above the May 30 high of $9,097, meaning the higher lows and higher highs setup is still intact. Also, prices are trading well above the 200-day moving average of $7,460 and the falling channel breakout on the monthly chart, confirmed in April, is valid.
Even so, there is merit in being cautious, as the weekly line chart is reporting a double top pattern with a neckline support of $9,533. A double top bearish reversal, if confirmed, would open the doors to levels below $7,550 (target as per the measured move method).
As of writing, BTC is trading below the neckline support. The breakdown would be confirmed if prices print a UTC close below $9,553 on Sunday.
Read Analysis
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SOLVE Flips Resistance
SOLVE: Price: $0.13 | MCAP: $43.6 million | 24-Hr Volume: $3.04 million
Short-term trend: Pullback
SOLVE is up 10.98 percent on the day and is also one of today's best performing crypto within the top 100 at CoinMarketCap, however, caution is warranted in the short-term as it approaches the daily RSI resistance at 50; bullish above, bearish below.
There may be a period for taking profit, so plan accordingly for a retest at the former resistance now support line at $1.27.
Long-term trend: Neutral
After stabilizing from a harsh sell of seen Aug 14, SOLVE has managed to claw back most losses felt from that day, throwing into contention, the long-term trend.
Should prices close above $0.1430, then a potential reversal could be on the table should it be backed by strong daily volume and a bullish signal in the form of the AO ticking above 0.
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Wanchain Is Hurting
WAN: Price: $0.33 | MCAP: $35.7 million | 24-Hr Volume: $15.6 million
Short-term trend: Bearish
WAN has fallen bearish in the mid-term below a key long-term moving average (MA). The 100-period MA signifies bullish price action when above the line and conversely bearish when below. In the early hours of the Asian trading period, the bears forced WAN's price lower for the third day in the red, conceding the last bastion of defense along the aforementioned 100-period MA at $0.34.
Only a firm close back above that line with consistent bullish (growing) volume would be enough to abort the bear bias heading into the new month.
Long-term trend: Bearish
The awesome oscillator (AO) has begun a histogram cycle down toward the neutral 0 line, highlighting a loss of the momentum from buyers as the price discovery continues.
With the loss of both the key long-term moving average and declining momentum the bias is firmly set at bearish for the foreseeable future with eyes locked on prior resistances at $0.32 and 0.31.
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Bitcoin's price rally has stalled, but the top cryptocurrency's non-price metrics continue to climb.
For instance, bitcoin's realized capitalization has risen above $100 billion for the first time on record.
The realized capitalization takes into account the value the coins had when they last moved as opposed to the traditional metric, which is arrived by multiplying the number of outstanding coins and the current market price.
Realized market cap, as calculated by Coin Metrics, is considered a better metric of the network value as it excludes coins which are lost or have become inaccessible.
"By realized cap's estimate, Bitcoin is the biggest it has ever been," tweeted @nic_carter earlier this week.
The record high on realize cap, however, has failed to put a bid under bitcoin's price. The cryptocurrency remained flat lined above $10,000 over the last six days and fell to one-month lows below $9,350 earlier today.
Focus on spread
As seen in the chart below, the market cap crossed above the realized cap in March and bitcoin's price broke into a bull market in the first week of April.
The previous bull markets also began with the markets cap rising above the realized cap.
So, the crypto community needs to keep an eye on the spread between the two metrics. As of now, the spread is narrowing as bitcoin's price is losing altitude.
A very high spread could be considered a sign the market has run ahead of itself (overstretched price rally).
Chart by: CoinDesk |
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| Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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Market Goes South