Recovery Falters

Risk off fails to put a bid under BTC

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October 4, 2019 Bitcoin Drops Despite US Recession Risks BTC/USD: Price: $8,180 | MCAP: $147 Billion | Maximum Gain: NA Why we were intrigued: Bitcoin failed to take out the 200-day moving average resistance on Tuesday, despite the uptick in the US recession risks and the rise in gold.  The U.S. Institute of Supply Management said Tuesday its manufacturing index fell to a 10-year low of 47.8 percent last month from 49.1 percent in August. A below-50 reading indicates contraction in manufacturing activity. The gloomy data boosted risk of a recession in 2020, sending stocks lower and the safe haven gold higher. Notably, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted more than 450 points in a two-day sell-off. Meanwhile, gold rose from $1,460 to $1,500 per ounce in the two days to Thursday.  Bitcoin is widely considered as a haven asset by many observers. Even so, the cryptocurrency faced rejection at key hurdle near $8,500 on Tuesday and fell back below $8,300. The cryptocurrency’s inability to score gains on risk aversion coupled with a failed breakout on the intraday charts were suggesting scope for a deeper drop to levels below $8,000. CoinDesk on Thursday put out an article explaining the bearish macro-technical setup. As expected, BTC faced selling pressure and hit a low of $7,986 on Bitstamp earlier today.  As of now, BTC is changing hands above $8,100. The daily MACD histogram, a technical tool used to identify trend strength and trend changes, is reporting seller exhaustion. BTC may have another go at the 200-day MA resistance, currently at $8,503.    Analysis   The Result  NEM Awaits Bulls Breakout XEM/BTC: Price: 484 sats | MCAP: 43,585 BTC | Maximum Loss: NA Why we were intrigued: XEM's BTC-denominated exchange rate topped out at 531 sats on Sept. 26 and is currently seen at 484 sats.  Trading volumes dropped as prices pulled back to 486 sats on Monday. A low-volume drop often traps sellers on the wrong side of the market.  Further, the moving average studies were reporting bullish conditions five days ago. Also, the RSI was biased bullish above 50. So, the pullback was expected to fuel a fresh move higher, possibly above the recent high of 531 sats. So far, however, the bullish move has remained elusive.  As of now, XEM/BTC is chipping away at the falling trendline resistance, as seen on the hourly chart. A breakout, if confirmed, would strengthen the case for a retest of recent highs.    Analysis The Result    Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. Copyright © 2018 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  Our mailing address is:  250 Park Avenue South New York, NY, 10003, US  Want to change how you receive these emails? You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from this list