Bitcoin Is 'Armageddon Insurance'?

Also: Fidelity-linked bitcoin ETF, IBM does crypto custody, Powell wants (a modicum of) CBDC privacy.

What you need to know today in crypto and beyond  March 25, 2021 Sponsored By:     If you were forwarded this newsletter and would like to receive it, sign up here.   Send feedback to daniel.kuhn@coindesk.com – we'd love to hear from you! Today's must-read Top Shelf CONSUMER DEMAND: An affiliate of investment giant Fidelity may offer a bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the U.S., according to a Wednesday filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The "Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust" would track the performance of Fidelity's bitcoin index. Separately, Cboe Global Markets has not "given up" on cryptocurrency, and may introduce new products and possibly re-list bitcoin futures (suspended in 2019), according to CEO Ed Tilly. "There's a lot of demand from retail and institutions, and we need to be there," Tilly told Bloomberg. PURPOSES OF COMPANIES: IBM appears to be ditching enterprise blockchain for crypto, proper. Big Blue is licensing its software to institutional crypto custodian METACO and separately working with Deutsche Bank on the bank's planned custody and trading service, according to CoinDesk's Ian Allison. Meanwhile, Microsoft's president said financial technology firms should leave currency issuance to governments. THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT: Fed Chair Jerome Powell said a digital dollar would need stronger privacy than its Chinese counterpart. In other news, Germany's Bundesbank is testing blockchain as a securities and bonds settlement solution that would not require a CBDC (which could destabilize the nation's banking system, officials say). Incidentally, the Reserve Bank of India is studying how a digital rupee would impact the country's financial stability.   EXCHANGE NEWS: Coinsquare must hand over detailed information on 5% to 10% of its 400,000 Canadian customers, their crypto trading activity and identifying information to the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA), after a defeat in court. The battle between exchanges and governments related to taxation and privacy is ongoing. Meanwhile, Coinbase plans to establish an outpost in India even as the country's government is preparing legislation that could ban cryptocurrency ownership.   – Daniel Kuhn Overheard on CoinDesk TV Sound Bite "I don't think you can underestimate the psychological impact of price. $40,000 at this point looks quite reasonable." – Edward Woodford, co-founder of Zero Hash, speaking on bitcoin's rise from $20,000 in 2017 to around $51,000 today, on CoinDesk TV's First Mover. A message from Nexo Your digital assets deserve a savings account in their BEST INTEREST. Leading crypto lender Nexo treats you, your crypto and your fiat to industry-best Crypto & Fiat services, featuring:    * Up to 12% interest on digital assets, paid out daily! * Yields available on BTC, ETH, LTC, BCH, XRP, XLM, EOS, TRX, LINK, BNB, PAXG, USDT, USDC, TUSD, PAX, DAI, HUSD, GBP and EUR. * No minimum or maximum limits on funds deposited, offering infinite opportunities to earn. * #ZeroFees on all transactions. * Military-grade wallet security and top-tier insurance on all custodial assets with SOC 2 Type 2 certified crypto custodian BitGo.   Get started at nexo.io A message from CoinDesk Introducing 'Coin Toss,' debating the future of money on CoinDesk TV   From the world leader in crypto news and events, the all-new CoinDesk TV covers the rapidly evolving world of digital finance and its role in the global economy.   Hosted by CoinDesk Podcasts Managing Editor Adam B. Levine, "Coin Toss" sets the stage for debate between guests with opposing views on policy and regulation, privacy and data integrity, fraud and crime and more.   Watch "Coin Toss" Wednesdays at 10:30 a.m. ET on YouTube or CoinDesk.com. What others are writing... Off-Chain Signals "The Dao of DAOs," via Packy McCormack. (It's Not Boring) Cointelegraph's Andrew Thurman looks at StarkWare's $75 million raise as a case study in VCs betting big on scalability sidechains. Nice roundup of what seven prominent banks have said about bitcoin. The good, the bad and the ugly from Decrypt.   – D.K. A message from NEM GROUP     Symbol from NEM, the next-generation public blockchain, launched March 15, marking a milestone in NEM's vision for a new economic and digital system. Boasting enterprise-grade security and programmability, Symbol smooths business friction and increases the flow of data  to supercharge the creation, exchange and protection of assets. NEM Group - comprising NEM Software, NEM Trading, and NEM Ventures - nurtures a strong and healthy ecosystem to shape the development and future of blockchain technology for generations to come. Putting the news in perspective The Takeaway Armageddon Insurance? Yesterday, Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla will hold any bitcoin it brings in from paying customers (instead of converting that BTC to fiat). And it appears the future king of Mars is building a bitcoin stockpile to last through the ages.   This got me thinking whether Earth-bound sovereigns would ever put "bitcoin on the balance sheet," as the saying goes.   Under what scenarios would a government follow Tesla and decide to buy bitcoin?   I put the question to James Angel, an associate professor at Georgetown's McDonough School of Business, who specializes in global financial markets.   Here's what he said:   First, call him Jim.   Second, most rich, developed, western governments are unlikely to ever add bitcoin to their balance sheets. Bitcoin is a private competitor to their "seigniorage franchises." If it ever catches on – like really catches on beyond Elon Musk's imaginary moon colony – "they'll have to tax people in other ways," Angel said.   In fact, governments "might be happy if it went away entirely," he said. "There is a long, long, long history of governments shooing aside private currencies."   Rogue states likely already hold some bitcoin, but not in the same way that MicroStrategy, Tesla or Square do, Angel said. Nations like North Korea or Venezuela view cryptocurrency as a way to evade sanctions, similar to how bitcoin has become a dominant medium of transaction on the dark web (after credit cards, of course).   Governments plugged into the fiat-based, global financial system are unlikely to reap any of the uncensorable benefits bitcoin provides. And while bitcoin is a comparatively cheap way to move large amounts of capital, Angel thinks governments have gotten hip to the "technological revolution" and will have their own stablecoin-like central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) online soon.   But what of the digital gold narrative? Of course no government would hold bitcoin to transact with – no, people do that!   Well, Angel invites us to consider why there are places like Fort Knox or crypts below the Bank of England. In other words, why do governments hoard gold?   "It's Armageddon insurance," Angel said. Under a scenario where it becomes too risky to accept dollars or pound sterling, when lenders stop lending, gold becomes a backstop. Fiat currencies are relatively new innovations in the history of money, a departure from centuries of commerce conducted in the yellow metal.   But it's an expensive hedge. "You have to store it and protect it," Angel said. Governments are willing to tie up resources (tax resources) because of gold's history. Bitcoin, newer than fiat currencies, would be a cheaper and potentially more secure way to hold state reserves, but it comes with an added risk of the blockchain's future. "It's an option on the future that you will have a solid blockchain that someone will figure out a need for," Angel said. He's skeptical on that front.   The last wrinkle: Governments also hold foreign asset reserves. According to our Virgil, leading us through the scenarios of monetary Armageddon, this is mostly a vanity project. Nations hold other countries' currencies to show they're able to support their own local money.   If, say, the lira becomes weak, Turkey can purchase foreign assets as a way to stabilize local prices. "If you run out of foreign reserves, your currency plummets," Angel said.   So why not bitcoin? It is, by some measures, the third-largest currency. Well, Angel points to the cost-benefit analysis some CIA official has probably war-gamed. If bitcoin receives a state stamp of approval, it opens up a whole host of issues (like the taxation considerations above).   Further, as EY's Blockchain Lead Paul Brody put it: "Lots of governments hold dollars as a reserve asset both because of the asset value/stability over time but also because a lot of key international trade assets like oil are priced in dollars."   That isn't necessarily the case for bitcoin. As Carnegie Mellon Associate Professor of Economics Ariel Zetlin-Jones notes, "The enormous volatility in day-to-day price changes associated with cryptocurrencies shows no sign of slowing."   That's part of the reason why programs to collect taxes in crypto, such as in Ohio, have been wound down. Also, why agencies like the U.S. General Services Administration or federal marshals that come into possession of bitcoin through criminal asset seizures or other means, auction it off.   Last year, it was unthinkable that a public company would issue several rounds of debt to buy bitcoin. Today, there's MicroStrategy. I'm not sure anything is off the table when it comes to bitcoin.   – D.K. A message from CoinDesk What are bitcoin and ether's value propositions for investors? A new report by CoinDesk Research explains how the two most popular cryptocurrencies by market capitalization behave in the market, how their infrastructure differs, and what on-chain metrics say about them.   Download "Bitcoin + Ether: An Investor's Perspective" from the CoinDesk Research Hub. The Chaser... ATTENTION: Scammers have been sending fraudulent emails with links to sites disguised to look like coindesk.com. 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