First Mover: Bitcoin’s Steep Price Discount Similar to March 2020 Bottom

PLUS: Bitcoin Holds Short-Term Support; Faces Resistance at $40K

Everything you need to make sense of the crypto markets and beyond By the CoinDesk Markets Team Edited by Lawrence Lewitinn, Managing Editor, Global Capital Markets June 11, 2021 Sponsored by     Bitcoin (BTC) -1.1%  $37,520 Ether (ETH)  -4.0%   $2,478 (Price data as of June 11 @11:00 UTC) If you were forwarded this newsletter and would like to receive it, sign up here.  Good morning. Here's what we're writing about: Market Moves: Bitcoin's Steep Price Discount Seems Similar to March 2020 Bottom Technician's Take: Bitcoin Holds Short-Term Support; Faces Resistance at $40K Check out the CoinDesk TV show "First Mover," hosted by Christine Lee, Lawrence Lewitinn and Emily Parker at 9:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern time. Today the show will feature guests: Kareem Yusuf, IBM Blockchain General Manager Joel Edgerton, bitFlyer USA COO & Board Member James Bernard, DMCC Regional Representative Europe Biggest Movers These are the biggest movers in the CoinDesk 20 over the past 24 hours:   Gainers: Algorand (ALGO): +1.4% Losers: NuCypher (NU): -7.7% Uniswap (UNI): -6.6% Chainlink (LINK): -6.2% Aave (AAVE): -6.1%   The CoinDesk 20 are 20 digital assets filtered from the larger universe of thousands of cryptocurrencies and constitute roughly 99% of the market by volume at eight of the largest and most trustworthy exchanges. Market Moves by Omkar Godbole   Bitcoin's Steep Price Discount Seems Similar to March 2020 Bottom   Bitcoin traded at a significant discount to its long-term moving average earlier this week, implying an overstretched bearish move and potential for reversal higher.   The cryptocurrency dropped to nearly $30,000 on Tuesday, pushing the ratio to its 20-week simple moving average (SMA) down to 0.61, the lowest since the March 2020 crash.   Historically, bitcoin (BTC) has carved out major price bottoms with the ratio near 0.60.   "Our graphic depicts bitcoin at the steepest discount to its 20-week moving average since the March 2020 bottom around $4,000," Bloomberg's Mike McGlone said in a research note published on June 9. "A more enduring discount at the end of 2018 marked the low closer to $3,000."   Bitcoin price discount to 20-week SMA (Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, Mike McGlone)   If past data is a guide, Tuesday's low near $30,000 could also turn out to be a bear-market bottom. Bitcoin has bounced up slightly over the past three days to near $37,000, but remains well under the 200-day SMA at $42,000.   According to McGlone, the sentiment has turned a little too bearish, a feature that is often observed at market bottoms.   "Calls for $20,000 and technical patterns such as 'death crosses' are often triggers for the more fundamentally focused and longer-term bulls to be responsive buyers," McGlone noted.   A death cross, or the bearish crossover of 50-day and 200-day SMAs, is widely taken to represent a long-term bearish shift in momentum. Bitcoin's 50-day SMA is trending south and looks set to cross below the 200-day line in the next few days.   Some analysts are worried that could bring in more profound losses. However, these indicators often trap traders on the wrong side of the markets as they are based on past data and tend to lag prices.   In other words, by the time the crossover happens, the asset is oversold and primed for a bounce. Both previous two instances of death crosses, March 2020 and Oct 2019, turned out to be bear traps.   Blockchain data shows large investors continue to accumulate coins, shrugging off the recent China crackdown on crypto mining or the death cross fears.   McGlone remains optimistic about bitcoin's long-term price prospects. "Early days of price discovery, plus mainstream adoption and the inevitability of U.S. ETFs, keep $100,000 resistance on our radar," McGlone said.   Read the original story here: Bitcoin's Steep Price Discount Seems Similar to March 2020 Bottom A message from Nexo Your digital assets deserve a savings account in their BEST INTEREST. 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There is strong resistance near $40,000 despite oversold readings on the daily chart.   Bitcoin registered a series of lower price highs over the past two weeks, although buyers have defended support around $34,000 and $30,000.   The cryptocurrency was trading around $37,500 at press time.   Bitcoin daily chart shows support and resistance levels with RSI (Source: TradingView) The relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is improving from an initial oversold reading on May 19. This suggests the downtrend from May is stabilizing. However, there is strong overhead resistance which could limit price rallies beyond $40,000. The weekly chart is not yet oversold, although there are initial signs of downside exhaustion. This means buyers and sellers are at a stalemate until a decisive break above $40,000 or below $30,000 is confirmed. The longer-term trend is weakening following extreme overbought signals in March. For now, upside remains limited into the weekend given the intermediate-term downtrend. Read the original story here: Bitcoin Holds Short-Term Support; Faces Resistance at $40K A message from Farsite Ever dreamed of owning a spaceship? It is possible in Farsite - upcoming DeFi powered MMO RTS, where NFTs acquired a new meaning. Designed for Ethereum 2.0, Farsite runs cNFT protocol to allow collateral staking against game assets. Explore a myriad of galaxies in the everlasting search for rare resources, modernize your vessel, and trade assets on the open market. Preorder launches May 31 - join the Airdrop to charter your first spacecraft, traveler, the countdown begins. BOLO Be on the look out for some of these upcoming events:   14:00 UTC (10:00 a.m. ET): Consumer Sentiment Index. Est: 84.4 The cryptocurrency movement has never been so sprawling, reaching every corner of the planet. Crypto State by CoinDesk aims to connect with local communities to explore this movement of financial disruption and how it trickles down to every corner of the globe, from DeFi investment opportunities to alternative ways to transact and store wealth. We're making virtual stops with audiences in Nigeria, the Middle East and Southeast Asia this year. Register for the Crypto State virtual tour. ICYMI In case you missed it, here are the most recent episodes of "First Mover" on CoinDesk TV:   Senate Banking Committee Hearing on Digital Dollar, What MIT Expert Says About the Only Solution to Crypto Ransomware Problem U.S. lawmakers are stepping up their criticism of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies following the recent high profile cyberattacks on major U.S. companies. Dave Jevans of CipherTrace joins "First Mover" to discuss whether having a digital dollar can help solve the problem. Plus, eToro's U.S. chief on why the company is moving its U.S. headquarters to Miami. CoinDesk's new reward token soft-launched at Consensus 2021, but $DESK lives on. Attendees can still cash in at the $DESK store, or hodl and accumulate. Join the Telegram group for announcements and airdrops. Latest Headlines 'FOMO' Traders Rotate From Bitcoin to Meme Stocks Meme stocks are rising as BTC stabilizes after a volatile May. Nigeria's Central Bank May Launch a Digital Currency Pilot in 2021 A central bank official said Nigeria has been researching CBDCs for two years.   Crypto Exchange Apifiny Hires New President, Inches Towards Public Listing The "exchange of exchanges" has hired a new CFO to help take the company public.   Silvergate Bank to Discontinue Binance USD Deposits, Withdrawals "We are working hard to provide an alternative USD solution," the exchange told traders in a widely shared email whose authenticity CoinDesk confirmed.   SEC Again Warns Investors Against Bitcoin Futures Funds The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sent out a second note to investors urging to reevaluate Bitcoin futures-focused funds. Sustainable Supply Chain Technology Company Circulor Closes $14M Funding Round Circulor's platform uses blockchain and other technologies to help companies track the carbon output in their supply chains.   Texas State Regulator Greenlights Banks to Custody Crypto A June 10 notice from the Texas Department of Banking told state-chartered banks they're okay to work with crypto companies.   Hong Kong-Listed BC Group Receives $70M in New Funding Funding will go towards IT and non IT-related expenses, including staff costs, marketing expenses and expansion into other markets.   Hospitals Among the Latest to Suffer Ransomware Attacks: Report The Eastern European-based hackers have made a practice of collecting their payments in bitcoin. Emmer, Congressional Blockchain Group Ask IRS to Revise Guidance on Charitable Crypto Donations In a letter, the group says that the amount of a donation should depend on free market value, not an appraiser's determination. Brazil's Central Bank Pushes Back Target Date on CBDC by Two Years BCB told CoinDesk the timeframe for an adoption of a CBDC depended on the evolution of its current projects and the international landscape. Jack Dorsey Suggests Twitter Likely to Integrate Lightning Network In a tweet, the Twitter founder hinted the micromessaging system will integrate Bitcoin layer 2 payments Lightning Network.   Alan Howard Adds to Crypto Spending With Investment in Two Startups Alan Howard, the co-founder of the Brevan Howard hedge fund, has added to his spending on crypto with investments in two start-ups.   WazirX Issued With Show Cause Notice by India's Enforcement Directorate India's Enforcement Directorate (ED), responsible for fighting economic crime in the country, issued a show cause notice to WazirX, a Binance-owned cryptocurrency exchange based in Mumbai.   South Africa's Financial Watchdog to Bring Crypto Exchanges Into Regulatory Oversight The Financial Sector Conduct Authority said it intends to bring crypto assets into its remit "in a phased and structured approach."   Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments.  ATTENTION: Scammers have been sending fraudulent emails with links to sites disguised to look like coindesk.com. If you are in doubt about a link, type https://www.coindesk.com directly into your browser; do not copy and paste. Remember, if something seems too good to be true, it probably is. 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