Why a Bitcoin Breakout Seems More Likely Than a Breakdown

PLUS: Crypto volumes got crushed in June

Everything you need to make sense of the crypto markets and beyond By the CoinDesk Markets Team Edited by Lawrence Lewitinn, Managing Editor, Global Capital Markets July 13, 2021 Sponsored by     Bitcoin (BTC) -1.%  $33,234 Ether (ETH)  -4.2%  $2,028 (Price data as of July 13 @11:00 UTC) If you were forwarded this newsletter and would like to receive it, sign up here.  Good morning, and welcome to First Mover. Here's what's happening this morning: Market Moves: Crypto Trading of Derivatives in June Surpass Spot for First Time This Year While volume was down across both sectors, monthly derivatives volume exceeded spot for the first time this year.  Technician's Take: Bitcoin's Range Play Likely to End With Bullish Breakout: Analyst "Intermediate-term momentum has been improving based on the MACD histogram," one analyst said. And check out the CoinDesk TV show "First Mover," hosted by Christine Lee, Emily Parker and me at 9:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern time. Today the show will feature guests: Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) Brian Brooks, Binance.US CEO  – Lawrence Lewitinn Biggest Movers These are the biggest movers in the CoinDesk 20 over the past 24 hours:   Gainers: Tezos (XTX): +0.3% Losers: Uniswap (UNI): -5.9% Aave (AAVE): -5.6% Filecoin (FIL): -4.4% The CoinDesk 20 are 20 digital assets filtered from the larger universe of thousands of cryptocurrencies and constitute roughly 99% of the market by volume at eight of the largest and most trustworthy exchanges. A message from ByBit Earn up to $600 in rewards when you sign up with Bybit!    Top crypto exchange featured on Bloomberg. Trade Bitcoin, Ethereum, Doge, and more!   Check out all our exciting promotions just for you! Lots of attractive bonuses available when you sign up with us.    Spot, derivatives trading and other options available.    Sign Up Now!    Market Moves by Sebastian Sinclair Crypto Trading of Derivatives in June Surpass Spot for First Time This Year Cryptocurrency derivatives, such as futures and options, have surpassed the number of coins traded in spot markets for June, according to a monthly report by CryptoCompare. Monthly derivatives versus spot volume (Source: CryptoCompare) Trading volumes, which have closely followed bitcoin (BTC)'s decline, slumped across both spot and derivatives markets during the month when compared to May. In June, spot volumes decreased by 42.7% while total derivative volumes decreased 40.7%, CryptoCompare reported. This was also the scenario for bitcoin and ether (ETH) futures open interest, which fell to 31.8% and 29.3% respectively. While volume was down, monthly derivatives volume exceeded spot this year for the first time, Bloomberg reported Tuesday. Open interest for futures across all products fell 40.9% month-over-month to $16.4 billion. That marks the lowest level since January this year. Derivatives volumes also slouched 40.7% in June to $3.2 trillion, while total spot volumes decreased by 42.7% to $2.7 trillion, CryptoCompare reported. Read the original story here: Crypto Trading of Derivatives in June Surpass Spot for First Time This Year The CoinDesk Quarterly Review 2021 Q2 After two consecutive quarters of strong price gains for most of the top crypto assets, Q2 2021 finally brought an end to market euphoria with a resounding crash. Most CoinDesk 20 assets, which constitute 99% of the crypto market by verifiable volume, ended the quarter with negative returns. Meanwhile, protocol development for the world's largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, Bitcoin and Ethereum, reached new milestones. CoinDesk Research's latest Quarterly Review dives into the trends, developments and technological progress that shaped the crypto markets from April to June 2021. The full report is now available from the CoinDesk Research Hub. Technician's Take by Omkar Godbole Bitcoin's Range Play Likely to End With Bullish Breakout: Analyst An analyst who predicted the bitcoin (BTC) mid-May price slide says the cryptocurrency's current range play is likely to be resolved on the higher side.   "The consolidation phase itself is neutral, but we think a breakout is more likely than a breakdown," Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, said in a research note published on Monday. "Intermediate-term momentum has been improving based on the MACD histogram."   Bitcoin has been trading between $30,000 and $40,000 since late May. The price range has narrowed further in the past two weeks, with bulls unwilling to send prices above $36,000 and sellers refusing to step in below $32,000.   A big move looks overdue and could be bullish, as the weekly chart MACD histogram, an indicator used to gauge trend strength and trend changes, has turned higher, having bottomed out in mid-June. Bitcoin weekly chart (Source: Fairlead Strategies, TradingView) The consecutive shallow bars below the zero line indicate seller exhaustion.   The relative strength index continues to indicate oversold conditions with a below-30 print. "Intermediate-term oversold conditions have generated stabilization above $30,000, which has proven to be strong support for bitcoin," Stockton said.   According to Stockton, the expected breakout would be confirmed on consecutive daily UTC closes above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $35,500. That would the doors to the next resistance level, near $44,000.   The 50-day SMA is one of the most widely-tracked technical lines. Stockton mentioned it as the level to defend for the bulls back in April, when prices were trading well above average. The SMA support was breached on April 20 and was followed by a sell-off in May.   At press time, bitcoin is trading little changed on the day near $33,200. A break below the long-held support at $30,000 could invite chart-driven sellers. However, Stockton sees a low probability of a range breakdown.     Read the original story here: Bitcoin's Range Play Likely to End With Bullish Breakout: Analyst A message from Exeno Spending  cryptocurrencies without FIAT conversions   The number of crypto transactions reached its peak in 2020-2021. Many credible investors are looking for new opportunities to realize profits. Especially without the extra costs of high taxes and large fees.   Exeno is the first e-commerce platform that allows customers to make purchases using cryptocurrencies only (BTC, ETH, BTCV). The key Exeno's features are no FIAT conversions and low commission: 1.8% per purchase.    Learn more BOLO Be on the look out for some of these upcoming events: 12:30 UTC (8:30 a.m. ET): Consumer Price Index (CPI) (June). Est: +0.5% Core CPI (June). Est: +0.5% 18:00 UTC (2:00 p.m. ET): Federal budget deficit (June). Est: ($200 billion) The cryptocurrency movement has never been so sprawling, reaching every corner of the planet. Crypto State by CoinDesk aims to connect with local communities to explore this movement of financial disruption and how it trickles down to every corner of the globe, from DeFi investment opportunities to alternative ways to transact and store wealth. We're making virtual stops with audiences in Nigeria, the Middle East and Southeast Asia this year. Register for the Crypto State virtual tour. ICYMI In case you missed it, here are the most recent episodes of "First Mover" on CoinDesk TV:   SEC v. Ripple: Lawsuit Gets Intense, Jim Rogers on Crypto Investment Outlook "First Mover" is joined by Ripple's general manager and head of RippleNet Asheesh Birla to discuss the company's ongoing lawsuit with SEC as XRP finished the second quarter as the best performing asset among CoinDesk's top 20 list. Legendary investor Jim Rogers also joins the show to discuss his position on crypto and general market trend.  The Investor's Perspective on the Bitcoin Taproot Upgrade   Taproot is a bundle of three upgrades to Bitcoin aimed at improving network security, privacy and scalability. At the same time, it poses some potential drawbacks to Bitcoin including risks of low adoption, unintended privacy shortcomings and Bitcoin community disappointment and fracturing. CoinDesk Research's newest report dives into the economic impact and investment implications of the Taproot upgrade.   Download the full report. Latest Headlines US Financial Giant Capital Group Buys 12% Stake in Bitcoin-Exposed MicroStrategy The purchase provides the firm with indirect exposure to Microstrategy's more than 105,000 bitcoin reserves. Australian Government Gifts $4.1M in Grants to Two Blockchain Pilot Projects Funding of AU$5.6 million has gone to blockchain provenance startup Everledger and tech consultancy Convergence.tech. UK Police Seize $250M Worth of Crypto The haul comes only weeks after a then-record $158 million of crypto was confiscated by Greater London's police force. FTX Integrates Copper Trading Tool ClearLoop ClearLoop lowers risk by allowing institutional investors to hold on to assets until just before a trade is executed. Chinese Miner The9 Reserves Facilities From Russia's BitRiver Facing regulatory pressure at home, The9 is looking to locate elsewhere. Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments.  ATTENTION: Scammers have been sending fraudulent emails with links to sites disguised to look like coindesk.com. If you are in doubt about a link, type https://www.coindesk.com directly into your browser; do not copy and paste. Remember, if something seems too good to be true, it probably is. First Mover   A newsletter from CoinDesk Copyright © 2021 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.    250 Park Avenue South New York, NY 10003, USA You can manage your preferences here or unsubscribe from all CoinDesk email.