Case for Bitcoin Bottom Near $40K Appears Weak

Bitcoin's Weekly Chart Shows a Bear Cross

The latest moves in crypto markets, in context January 17, 2022 Sponsored by     If you were forwarded this newsletter and would like to receive it, sign up here.  Good morning, and welcome to First Mover. Here's what's happening this morning: Market Moves: Case for bitcoin bottom near $40K appears weak Technician's Take: Bitcoin's weekly chart shows a bear cross The CoinDesk TV show "First Mover," hosted by Christine Lee, Emily Parker and Lawrence Lewitinn, is on hiatus and will return on Tuesday. Today's newsletter was edited by Omkar Godbole  Market Moves While the bitcoin options market has recently shed its bearish bias, some analysts remain unconvinced about the shift owing to weak institutional demand and the cryptocurrency's sensitivity to macro factors.   Laurent Kssis, a crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF) expert and director of CEC Capital, says there are few signs of renewed interest from institutional investors, so a big price bounce soon looks unlikely. "A good barometer is always the asset under management and inflows into crypto exchange-traded products and ETFs. So far we have recovered only $1 billion of inflows versus $4 billion that has left these products alone in January."   The image below, from ByteTree Asset Management, shows the number of coins held by U.S. and Canadian closed-ended funds and Canadian and European exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has declined by 8,812 BTC ($377 million) since mid-December. Chart showing a decline in bitcoin held by funds (Source: ByteTree Asset Management) Crypto services provider Amber Group said a continued rise in real or inflation-adjusted interest rates poses the biggest downside risk to bitcoin and risk assets, in general. "Bitcoin's correlation with the stock market has gone up," Amber Group said.   Since mid-November, the U.S. 10-year real yield has jumped 50 basis points, or 0.5 percentage point, to -0.66%, data provided by the U.S. Department of the Treasury show. Bitcoin has declined almost 40% during the same period.   The correlation between bitcoin and M1 money supply has increased to 0.77, pointing to a strong statistical relationship between the two, blockchain analytics firm IntoTheBlock said in a research note published over the weekend. That implies a bearish outlook for bitcoin if the Federal Reserve begins raising borrowing costs every quarter, as anticipated by the interest-rate market.   Read: Case for Bitcoin Bottom Near $40K Is Weak as Institutions Stay Away Cardano rallies   Programmable blockchain Cardano's ADA token jumped 13% in 24 hours as Thursday's planned launch of SundaeSwap, the first decentralized finance (DeFi) exchange on the Cardano blockchain, revved up investor interest in the cryptocurrency.    "SundaeSwap will launch as a fully-functional beta decentralized exchange (DEX)," the project's developers confirmed in a blog post on Sunday. Projects will be allowed to create trading pools for their tokens after Tuesday, the team added.   Read: Cardano Price Surges on SundaeSwap DEX Catalyst   A Message from CME Step into Ether futures with a micro-sized contract Introducing Micro Ether futures (MET) – sized at 1/10 of one ether, the new contract provides an efficient, cost-effective way to manage your exposure to one of largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. Trade Ether futures in a smaller size Enjoy the same benefits as the larger Ether futures contract at a fraction (1/500) of the size and with lower margins, settled to the regulated CME CF Ether-Dollar Reference Rate. Precisely scale your ether exposure Add more control over the amount of ether exposure in your trading strategies. Enjoy price discovery and transparency Trade in a CFTC-regulated, transparent, and liquid marketplace, providing time-tested financial safeguards and price discovery.   Explore Micro Ether futures Crypto Prices Bitcoin (BTC) See the latest price here Ether (ETH)  See the latest price here The following are the biggest movers in the CoinDesk 20 digital assets over the past 24 hours: Biggest Gainers: Asset Ticker Returns Sector Cardano ADA +9.2% Smart Contract Platform Litecoin LTC +4.5% Currency Polygon MATIC +1.4% Smart Contract Platform Biggest Losers:  Asset Ticker Returns Sector Dogecoin DOGE −5.5% Currency Internet Computer ICP −4.9% Computing Polkadot DOT −4.7% Smart Contract Platform Sector classifications are provided via the Digital Asset Classification Standard (DACS), developed by CoinDesk Indices to provide a reliable, comprehensive, and standardized classification system for digital assets. The CoinDesk 20 is a ranking of the largest digital assets by volume on trusted exchanges.  A Message from Brave Brave Wallet is the first secure crypto wallet built natively in a web3 browser. No extensions required.   Store, manage, and grow your portfolio, get NFT & multi-chain support. Even connect other wallets and DApps. All from the security of the best privacy browser on the market.    Whether you're new to crypto, or a seasoned pro, it's time to ditch those risky extensions. It's time to switch to Brave Wallet.  Download Brave today, and click the Wallet icon to get started. Latest Headlines Fidelity: 'Countries That Secure Some Bitcoin Today Will Be Better Off Than Their Peers' Singapore Looks to Curb Crypto Ads Sotheby's to Accept BTC, ETH or USDC in Auction of Rare Black Diamond Called 'The Enigma' Land Prices Surge on Cardano Metaverse Project Pavia Crypto.com Capital Hires Jon Russell as LP, Hints at Expanding Fund Size New Year, New Money New Money, a new series by CoinDesk, explores what it means to be part of the new "creator economy." In the talk show hosted by Spencer Dinwiddie and Solo Ceesay, we hear from pro athletes, celebrities and social media influencers who are on the cutting edge of interacting directly with fans and developing new ways to generate revenue from their own celebrity. Learn more here. Technician's Take By Omkar Godbole Bitcoin's weekly chart bear cross Bitcoin's weekly chart with 10- and 50-candle averages (Source: TradingView)  Bitcoin's 10-week simple moving average (SMA) is about to dip below the 50-week SMA, confirming a so-called bearish crossover.   Historically, the negative signal has proven to be a contrary indicator, marking interim price bottoms and the end of bear markets, as feature image shows. ICYMI In case you missed it, here are the most recent episodes of "First Mover" on CoinDesk TV:   Crypto Market Seesaw, Bringing Bitcoin to Retail Locations Near You   Cash transfer company MoneyGram is doubling down on its partnership with Coinme, investing in the crypto-cash exchange for a 4% ownership stake. MoneyGram CEO Alexander Holmes and Coinme CEO Neil Bergquist join "First Mover" to discuss their expansion plans and partnership, making it possible for consumers to purchase bitcoin at thousands of U.S. retail locations. Plus, what to make of the latest crypto market ups and downs? Brad Roth of Thor Financial shares his analysis and outlook.   Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments.  First Mover A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2021 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  250 Park Avenue South New York, NY 10003, USA Manage your newsletter subscriptions  |  Unsubscribe from all CoinDesk email