Peak Bearish Sentiment in Bitcoin?

Ether's daily chart shows conflicting signals

The latest moves in crypto markets, in context January 27, 2022 Sponsored by     If you were forwarded this newsletter and would like to receive it, sign up here.  Good morning, and welcome to First Mover. Here's what's happening this morning: Market Moves: Peak bearish sentiment in bitcoin? Technician's Take: Ether's daily chart shows conflicting signals And check out the CoinDesk TV show "First Mover," hosted by Christine Lee, Emily Parker and Lawrence Lewitinn at 9:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern time. Today's show will feature guests: Michael Venuto, chief investment officer, Toroso Investments Eduardo Paes, mayor, Rio de Janeiro Michael Sung, co-director and chairman, Fudan Fanhai Fintech Research Center at Fudan University Today's newsletter was edited by Omkar Godbole and produced by Parikshit Mishra. Market Moves By Omkar Godbole Cryptocurrencies nursed losses as the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday set the stage for a more aggressive withdrawal of liquidity, weakening market confidence in the so-called "Fed put" – a notion that the central bank will come to the rescue if assets tumble.   In the bitcoin futures market, investors were reluctant to pay more premiums for far-month futures while three- and near-month futures listed on major exchanges, including the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, traded at less than a 5% annualized premium. That's a vital bearish sign, according to Griffin Ardern, a volatility trader from crypto-asset management company Blofin.   Flows were predominantly bearish post-Fed, Pankaj Balani, CEO of Delta Exchange, told CoinDesk, adding that their clients anticipate a more profound decline.    The fear is evident from bitcoin's six-month put-call skew's jump to 3%, the highest since Dec. 5. Put-call skews measure the cost of puts or bearish bets relative to calls. So, a positive figure indicates markets are expecting more volatility to the downside than upside and seeking protection.  Bitcoin's six-month put-call skew (Source: Skew)  Historically, positive six-month skew has signaled peak bearish sentiment and coincided with market bottoms, as observed in April 2020 and late May 2021.    Global tightening ahead?   Government bond yields spiked across as investors feared other central banks would follow Fed's hawkish lead.    With the Fed signaling faster rate hikes, the dollar is likely to strengthen against other fiat currencies, exporting price pressures to other nations in an already high inflation environment. So other central banks may react by raising rates to ensure there is no pick-up in imported inflation (high import cost).    The global tightening may complicate matters for bitcoin and other risk assets.    Time token slide   Wonderland's TIME tokens fell 32% in European hours after blockchain sleuths revealed "Sifu," a core member of the founding team, was previously involved in what is alleged to have been one of the crypto industry's biggest exit scams.    Wonderland founder Daniele Sestagalli confirmed the allegations in a later tweet, saying he was aware of Sifu's identity and connections to QuadrigaCX, as CoinDesk's Shaurya Malwa reported.    Read the full story here: Wonderland Rattled After Cofounder Tied to QuadrigaCX Alleged $190M Exit Scam   A Message from Grayscale As the world's largest digital currency asset manager, Grayscale offers the world's largest Bitcoin investment vehicle, Grayscale® Bitcoin Trust (symbol: GBTC) -- a secure and convenient way for investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin right from their brokerage accounts.   In lieu of a spot Bitcoin ETF, GBTC is a great option for investors looking to diversify their portfolio into the most popular cryptocurrency.   Access Grayscale Bitcoin Trust by typing symbol: GBTC into your brokerage account. Learn more here. Crypto Prices Bitcoin (BTC) See the latest price here Ether (ETH)  See the latest price here The following are the biggest movers in the CoinDesk 20 digital assets over the past 24 hours: Biggest Gainers: Asset Ticker Returns Sector Filecoin FIL +1.0% Computing Biggest Losers:  Asset Ticker Returns Sector Cosmos ATOM −9.3% Smart Contract Platform Internet Computer ICP −6.9% Computing Solana SOL −6.3% Smart Contract Platform Sector classifications are provided via the Digital Asset Classification Standard (DACS), developed by CoinDesk Indices to provide a reliable, comprehensive, and standardized classification system for digital assets. The CoinDesk 20 is a ranking of the largest digital assets by volume on trusted exchanges.  A Message from Brave Brave Wallet is the first secure crypto wallet built natively in a web3 browser. No extensions required.   Store, manage, and grow your portfolio, get NFT & multi-chain support. Even connect other wallets and DApps. All from the security of the best privacy browser on the market.    Whether you're new to crypto, or a seasoned pro, it's time to ditch those risky extensions. It's time to switch to Brave Wallet.  Download Brave today, and click the Wallet icon to get started. Latest Headlines Solana, Avalanche Post Biggest Declines After Hawkish Fed Outlook Bitcoin to Remain Choppy as 'Fed Put' Expires: Analysts Diem to Sell Assets to Silvergate Bank for $200M: Report Coinbase Close to Listing Solana Ecosystem Tokens: Sources A Struggling South Korean Museum is Auctioning National Treasures. Meet the 2 DAOs Trying to Buy Them The Sandbox Looks to Boost Metaverse Startups With $50M Incubator Program "New Money" explores what it means to be part of the new "creator economy." We hear from pro athletes, celebrities and social media influencers who are on the cutting edge of interacting directly with fans and developing new ways to generate revenue from their own celebrity. Tune in every Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET. Technician's Take By Omkar Godbole Conflicting signals on Ether's daily chart Ether's daily chart (Source: TradingView)  Ether's daily chart shows the 50-day moving average (MA) has crossed under the 200-day MA, confirming the so-called death cross, a bearish technical indicator.    However, long wicks attached to recent daily candles indicate seller exhaustion.    MAs are lagging indicators and less reliable than candlestick studies.  ICYMI In case you missed it, here are the most recent episodes of "First Mover" on CoinDesk TV: Crypto Markets Recovering From Steep Sell-Off Ahead of Federal Reserve Meeting, Animoca Brands' Latest Funding Round Dexterity Capital Managing Partner Michael Safai joins "First Mover" hosts for an in-depth analysis of the crypto markets as investors anticipate the FOMC meeting at 2 p.m. today. Animoca Brands Co-founder Yat Siu shares details of the latest funding round. Plus, insights on criminal activities using fiat VS. using crypto from Gartner Research Distinguished VP Analyst Avivah Litan. Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments.  First Mover A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? 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