The latest moves in crypto markets, in context March 24, 2022 Supported by |
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Good morning, and welcome to First Mover. Here's what's happening this morning: - Market Moves: Bitcoin's post-Fed rally stalls despite persistent rumors of big BTC purchases by the Luna Foundation Guard. Cardano and dogecoin rally.
- Featured stories: Bitcoin futures premium on the CME hits highest since early January. Bitcoin-S&P 500 ratio sees a bear flag.
Today's newsletter was edited by Omkar Godbole and produced by Bradley Keoun. And check out the CoinDesk TV show "First Mover," hosted by Christine Lee, Emily Parker and Lawrence Lewitinn at 9:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern time. - Marc Lopresti, managing director, The Strategic Funds
- Harold Bossé, VP of new product and innovation and cross-border payment innovation
- Alexander Zhang, mayor, Friends With Benefits
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The upward momentum in bitcoin and ether stalled, with the latter facing rejection near the $3,100 mark. Rumors of the Luna Foundation Guard following through on its plans to buy $3 billion worth of bitcoin to introduce a new BTC-backed reserve UST stablecoin continued to do the rounds. "There's probably $3-$7 billion in bidding coming on the back of @stablekwon's buying of a couple billion. It shouldn't be taken lightly how enormous, known spot buys are," Split Capital's Zaheer Ebtikar tweeted during the Asian hours. Bitcoin implied volatility continued to slide, extending the post-Fed slide signaling a persistent bias to sell options (vols). Meanwhile, put-call skews continued to show a preference for puts or options offering downside protection with above-zero prints. In alternative cryptocurrencies, the meme cryptocurrency dogecoin and Cardano's ADA surged more than 10%, with the latter backed by increased accumulation by both small and large addresses. "The addresses by holding indicator show an increasing accumulation across the board in the different brackets. Addresses holding 10-100 and 100k-1m ADA increased their balance by 12% and 11% in 30 days," analytics firm IntoTheBlock said in its Telegram channel. Attendees of the Avalanche Summit reported an overall positive mood, with a few exciting infrastructure developments in the pipeline. "There is a lot of excitement about NFTs, cross-chain bridges, and DeFi projects. Institutional investors are well represented. It's common to bump into VCs that invested in multiple Ethereum and Solana projects in the past but are new to Avalanche," Ilan Solot, partner at the Tagus Capital Multi-Strategy Fund, said in an email. In traditional markets, oil prices rose 5% on both sides of the Atlantic early today after Russian President Vladimir demanded unfriendly nations pay for Russian gas in rubles. "As the EU gets around 40% of their gas from Russia, this has huge implications," Marcus Sotiriou, analyst at the U.K-based digital asset broker GlobalBlock said in an email. "Rising oil prices increase the likelihood of a recession over the coming year." The futures tied to the S&P 500 pointed to a positive open with a 0.23% gain. Also read: Waves Coin Breaks Into Top 50 Rankings With 240% Monthly Gain |
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The following are the biggest movers in the CoinDesk 20 digital assets over the past 24 hours: |
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Sector classifications are provided via the Digital Asset Classification Standard (DACS), developed by CoinDesk Indices to provide a reliable, comprehensive, and standardized classification system for digital assets. The CoinDesk 20 is a ranking of the largest digital assets by volume on trusted exchanges. |
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CME Bitcoin Futures Premium Hits Highest Since Early January |
The annualized rolling premium in three-month bitcoin futures listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, a proxy for institutional participation, rose to 4.8% early Thursday, hitting the highest since Jan. 4, according to data provided by Skew. "This could be caused by bullish institutional investors and the ongoing rolls from the BTC ETFs [exchange-traded funds], which might cause buying pressure farther dated futures," Arcane Research said in a weekly research note published Tuesday. |
Bitcoin futures premium on the CME. (Skew.) |
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved ProShares' Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) and a string of others ETFs investing in the CME-listed bitcoin futures late last year. The total bitcoin exposure in ProShares ETF trading under the ticker BITO on the New York Stock Exchange rose to a lifetime high above 28,000 BTC on March 21. Premiums on offshore exchanges have also risen in a sign of improving market sentiment. That said, futures are still drawing less than 10% premium. It indicates that leverage remains low and the recent move higher could be spot-driven. Analysts remain confident of bitcoin's prospects. "Tens of thousands of Bitcoin being bought [by Luna Foundation Guard] and taken off the market will likely have a significant impact on price over the coming weeks/months," GlobalBlock's Sotiriou said. "Bitcoin bears will have a hard time fighting the buy pressure and in my opinion sellers will get exhausted, leading to a move to the upside above $45k, assuming oil prices do not make new highs." Bear flag on bitcoin-S&P 500 ratio |
Bitcoin-S&P 500 ratio's daily three-day chart. (TradingView.) |
A potential flag breakdown, a bearish continuation pattern, would imply a resumption of the downtrend from November highs. |
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Mining Week explores the dynamic field of cryptocurrency mining, from proposals to modify Bitcoin's software to cut energy consumption to up-and-comer projects that claim to be greener alternatives; from energy producers mining coins to make extra money and reduce waste to neighbors complaining about noise and higher electricity rates. Read, watch and listen to the series, updated daily here. |
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Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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CME Bitcoin Futures Premium Hits Highest Since Early January