Two things bitcoin’s rally is still missing

Bitcoin is holding its post-election gains, but fresh leverage and spot demand are missing. Plus: crypto’s biggest super PAC takes a hit in Ohio, Kraken parent Payward buys AAVE, and Google backstops Anthropic’s data center lease. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Thursday, November 5, 2026   “Bitcoin is resilient,” Binance founder CZ declared on X, and the price action since Wednesday’s knee-jerk dip in early Asian trading, after reports of a Democratic sweep in the midterm elections, is consistent with that view: bitcoin and the wider crypto market have surged and held on to their gains. But two things are still missing, and both call for caution on the part of bulls. First, there is little sign of fresh leverage entering the market, with bitcoin futures open interest largely unchanged at $53.40 billion, according to Coinglass, and flat or lower for many other coins, including SOL, HYPE, DOGE and NEAR, even as prices rose, which points to a lack of new capital. Second, spot-side indicators remain tepid: U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in just $74 million on Wednesday after outflows of more than $400 million in the first two trading days of the week and more than $500 million last month, per SoSoValue, and the Coinbase Premium remains negative, whereas it has historically been positive during sustained uptrends. Read together, the data suggest the price gains were driven largely by the unwinding of shorts: $450 million of crypto futures shorts were liquidated in the past 24 hours, $300 million of it in bitcoin, the most since Sept. 21. Analysts at Marex say spot demand now needs to take over, while Giottus CEO Vikram Subburaj calls this a relief rally and advises avoiding sharp moves and watching ETF flows and upcoming U.S. labor-market data before adding exposure. Stay alert. Read today’s full report → Market snapshot As of 9am ET Asset Price 24h BTC $78,882 −0.47% ETH $2,362 −0.58% SOL $94.17 −0.97% XRP $1.29 −2.03% Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. What matters today News Analysis   Story 1 of 3 Crypto’s powerhouse super PAC suffers costly setback as Democrats sweep Congress Fairshake, the crypto industry’s leading political action committee, put an unprecedented $56 million into opposing Democrat Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and Brown won on Tuesday night by a margin of nearly 5%, according to CoinDesk’s analysis. Fairshake said it spent about $154 million on campaign ads this year, so more than a third of its spending went toward that one race. The PAC and other industry groups also made a late push behind Republican candidates, which CoinDesk reports largely did not pay off as Democrats won control of both chambers, with the exception of an $11 million Fairshake bet that Nebraska Republican Pete Ricketts would keep his seat, which he did. Republican Representatives Bryan Steil and Bill Huizenga, who had played prominent roles in industry-friendly legislation, lost their seats, and the race for House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill was tight. Reactions differed: Mark Hays of Americans for Financial Reform called the spending against Brown a resounding defeat of the industry’s political strategy, while Wintermute’s Ron Hammond said Fairshake was fully justified in targeting Brown given his record on stablecoin legislation. A Fairshake spokesman said the group played a meaningful role in winning competitive races and will do so again in 2028, and the PAC says it has $56 million left on hand. Several candidates it backed in primaries, including Barry Moore, Andy Barr and Christian Menefee, won their general elections. Read more → Finance   Story 2 of 3 Kraken parent Payward and its clients buy AAVE tokens in DeFi investment push Payward, the parent company of crypto exchange Kraken, and its clients have acquired an undisclosed amount of AAVE tokens, expanding the company’s push into decentralized finance and asset management. The purchases were made through Digital Asset Special Investments I, LP, a Payward-affiliated investment fund, and its asset management clients, according to an announcement on Thursday, and the tokens were bought on the secondary market, with Payward saying it may make further purchases. A person familiar with the matter told CoinDesk that buying on the market rather than directly from Aave is a signal of alignment that paves the way for future collaboration, and that the deal has evolved since CoinDesk first reported talks in June, when the proposal involved 250,000 AAVE tokens and a 15% common equity stake in Aave Group at a $385 million valuation; Thursday’s announcement makes no mention of equity. The investment advances Payward’s effort to build an asset management business spanning digital assets, structured yield and tokenized investments, alongside its trading, banking and Payward Services pillars. Aave has about $33 billion in net deposits and $11 billion in active loans, according to the statement. Read more → Tech   Story 3 of 3 Google could take stake in bitcoin miner TeraWulf’s $19 billion AI project if Anthropic defaults Google has agreed to backstop Anthropic’s obligations under a 20-year, $19 billion lease for 401 megawatts of computing capacity at bitcoin miner TeraWulf’s Kentucky campus, TeraWulf said in a Wednesday filing, an arrangement meant to help TeraWulf secure financing for the project, which is expected to begin delivering capacity in late 2027. If Anthropic defaults on its rent or becomes insolvent, Google can step in as the tenant and take over the lease or, under certain conditions, pay a termination fee in exchange for an ownership stake in Raylan Data, the TeraWulf subsidiary operating the project. The size of the stake depends on the fee relative to the project’s total development cost, so a payment equal to 30% of that cost would give Google a 30% stake. For the first six years after its support takes effect, Google generally has to take over the lease rather than end it, unless the Google AI chips installed in the data halls can use less than half the power set aside for the tenant, and the obligations end if Anthropic or a parent or subsidiary holds an investment-grade credit rating for at least three months. Any stake would be in the project subsidiary, not in publicly traded TeraWulf, which has increasingly shifted from bitcoin mining toward supplying power and infrastructure for AI companies. Read more → CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. 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