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Focus on Monthly Close
BTC: Price: $5,294 | MCAP: $93.52 billion | 24-Hr Volume: $14.11 billion
Short-term trend: Neutral
Despite the bearish divergence of the relative strength index – a pattern which has yielded significant price pullbacks in the past – bitcoin is bouncing up from the 30-day moving average (MA), currently at $5,142.
That average had reversed price pullbacks in March. Hence, the immediate bearish outlook stands neutralized.
That said, the rebound from the 30-day MA needs to clear $5,291 – the high of the doji candle created on April 26 – to revive the bullish view. That would open the doors to $6,000.
The outlook would turn bearish if the price closes well below the 30-day MA today.
Long-term trend: Bullish
Bitcoin’s 14-week relative strength index (RSI) has moved above above the key resistance range of 53.00–55.00, validating the longer-term bullish reversal signaled by a falling channel breakout witnessed two weeks ago.
Supporting the longer run bullish case is the two-week MACD histogram's positive turn, the first since February 2018.
The longer run bullish outlook would be neutralized if the price finds acceptance below the 200-day MA, currently at $4,482.
The bullish case would strengthen further if the price ends today (monthly close) above the 21-month exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $5,238.
That average had served as strong price support in five-months to October and its violation in November was followed by a massive sell-off lows near $3,100.
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IOST Plows On With Minor Rally IOST: Price: $0.01169 | MCAP: $134.08 million | 24-Hr Volume: $22.05 million
Short-term trend: Bullish pullback
The bulls have slowed the advance from the bears and price is up 2.6 percent over a 24-hour period after yesterday's candle clawed its way back above the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement line - all in all, a fairly modest move.
The challenge now facing IOST is for its price to scale above former supports now turned resistance at $0.01260 in order to reverse April 23's breakdown below, as a result of an aggressive sell-off.
Long-term trend: Neutral
The trend has remained above the long-term 200-daily moving average but has slipped below the crucial 50 percent pivot point along the Fibonacci retracement zone when the sell-off occurred, pointing to bearish short-term, neutral long-term should prices hold around current levels.
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Raven Coin Clipped Again RVN: Price: $0.0493 | MCAP: $162.5 million | 24-Hr Volume: $14.8 million
Short-term trend: Pullback
The loss of a well defined support line at $0.05168 on April 29 has translated to a loss of confidence from the bulls who had to concede the line under considerable sell-pressure as can be seen on the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF).
The next major support lay along the confluence of the 100-day moving average (MA) and former resistances (yellow line) at $0.03525, a move beyond that would display increasing bearish tones to the on-going pullback.
Long-term trend: Neutral
RVN's recent push to its all-time high at $0.08033 at the start of the month and a subsequent pullback that has been on-going since April 20, demonstrating an unwillingness by the bulls to test beyond that point.
Exhaustion has therefore set in and will likely challenge the 100-day MA (blue line) in the coming weeks should conditions remain relatively unchanged.
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Litecoin, the world’s fifth largest cryptocurrency as per market capitalization, is currently reporting a 5 percent gain on a 24-hour basis with a falling wedge breakout on the 4-hour chart.
That pattern indicates the pullback from the recent highs near $100 has ended and the path of least resistance is now to the higher side.
Trading volumes, however, continue to remain low, putting a questioning mark on the sustainability of the wedge breakout.
Low volumes despite bullish breakout indicates the investors are still not confident about the trend reversal. In such cases, the bullish breakout is often short-lived.
So, @MihirNaik19 is right in stating that trading volumes need to rise for the cryptocurrency to move higher, as signaled by the falling wedge breakout.
It is worth noting that litecoin has led bitcoin and the broader-market higher this year. The cryptocurrency doubled in value in the first quarter, confirming a long-term bullish reversal.
Bitcoin followed suit with a sharp move to $5,000 on April 2.
Hence, the latest breakout on litecoin is good news for crypto markets. However, as noted earlier, trading volumes need to confirm the bullish development. |
@MustStopMurad’s tweet shows that bitcoin bottoms out when the long/short ratio is overextended (edges closer to 0.50) or the relative strength index (RSI) of that ratio is reporting oversold conditions.
As of writing, the long/short ratio is seen at 0.59, according to Bitfinex data. The RSI of the long/short ratio, however, has dipped below 30.00.
So, if history is any guide, bitcoin could be in for a next leg higher. That goes well with the fact that the 30-day moving average (MA0, which reversed pullbacks in March, is again offering strong support.
*Long/short ratio: As the name suggests, it is the ratio of total long (buy) BTC/USD position to short (sell) BTC/USD positions on Bitfinex.
An above-1 ratio indicates bullish sentiment, while a reading below 1 represents bearish sentiment.
At the same extreme bullish or bearish sentiment is widely considered a sign of impending trend reversal. |
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| Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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Three-Month Rally