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Bitcoin Challenging Four Month Uptrend
BTC: Price: $10,000 | MCAP: $178.48 billion | 24-Hr Volume: $17.61 billion
Short-term trend: Bearish
Bitcoin is fast erasing its recent low-volume bounce from $9,049 to $11,100 with the daily chart indicators like the Chaikin money flow and the relative strength index signaling bearish conditions.
The three-day chart MACD has also turned bearish for the first time since December and prices have breached the trendline connecting April and May lows.
So, with the path of least resistance to the downside, BTC risks falling all the way back to $9,049. On the way lower, BTC could find support at $9,614 (July 2 low).
On the higher side, a UTC close above $11,100 is needed to invalidate the bearish lower highs pattern on the daily chart.
Long-term trend: Bullish
Bitcoin closed last month with 25.89 percent gains, confirming a five-month winning streak, which is the longest since 2017.
With the double-digit gains, the cryptocurrency further cemented the falling channel breakout witnessed in April. The 5- and 10-month moving averages are trending north, indicating a bullish setup. As a result, the path of least resistance is to the higher side, more so, as the cryptocurrency is set to undergo mining reward halving sometime in May 2020.
Hence, investors may view any pullback to levels near $8,000, as just another chance to get involved in the bull market.
The outlook will remain bullish as long as prices are held above the 200-day moving average, currently lined up just below $6,000.
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Lisk Eyes 50-day Price Average LSK/BTC: Price: 1570 sats | MCAP: 18,423 BTC | 24-Hr Volume: 917.55 BTC
Short-term trend: Bullish
Up 10 percent, Lisk is one of the best performing cryptocurrencies today. LSK/BTC's daily chart shows the recovery from the recent low of 1097 sats to today's high of 1618 sats could be extended further, as the 14-day relative strength index is reporting bullish conditions with an above-50 print.
Further, the MACD histogram is gaining altitude above the zero line, a sign the bullish momentum is gaining strength. As a result, LSK looks set to test the 50-day moving average, currently at 1806 sats. Long-term trend: Neutral
LSK gained 14 percent last week, putting an end to the five-week losing streak. The 14-week relative strength index is now bouncing up from oversold levels (below 30), indicating scope for a corrective bounce. The bearish outlook, therefore, stands neutralized. That said, a weekly close (Sunday, UTC) above 2849 is needed to confirm a long-term bullish reversal.
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| TRON Drops 15 Percent TRX: Price: $0.0245 | MCAP: $1.64 billion | 24-Hr Volume: $0.69 billion
Short-term trend: Bearish
Down 15 percent on a 24-hour basis, TRX is the worst performing top 100 cryptocurrency by market capitalization on CoinMarketCap.
The cryptocurrency charted a bearish lower high at $0.030 over the weekend. Further, the daily chart shows a bearish doji reversal and a below 50-reading on the 14-day relative strength index.
TRX, therefore, risks falling all the way back to the recent low of $0.020.The outlook would turn bullish if and when prices rise above $0.030.
Long-term trend: Neutral
TRX fell below the trendline connecting November and May lows earlier this month, invalidating the long-term bullish outlook. The weekly RSI has also dropped below 50, indicating bearish conditions. The outlook, however, would turn bearish only if the support at $0.021 is breached with a weekly close (Sunday, UTC).
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The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on July 31 and the central bank's action could influence gold and possibly bitcoin, according to @skew_markets.
Indeed, the top cryptocurrency has rarely taken cues from Fed's actions in the past. Gold, however, is extremely sensitive to Fed's policy. More importantly, gold and bitcoin have pretty much moved in tandem since April.
For instance, BTC rallied from $4,000 to $13,800 in the second quarter and gold rose from $1,266 to $1,440. Put simply, a positive correlation developed between gold and bitcoin in the second quarter.
So, investors may sell bitcoins if gold takes a hit after the Fed rate decision.
Fed rate cut priced in
The gold market is largely priced in for a 25 basis point. Investors, however, expect the Fed to send out a dovish message, setting stage for a rate cut in September and December.
Gold could face selling pressure if the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points as expected, but tempers expectations of aggressive easing. A notable sell-off in gold could have a negative impact on bitcoin.
Both gold and bitcoin could rise sharply if the Fed sounds dovish, bolstering the already dovish expectations.
Gold is a zero-yielding metal and tends to gain in value when yields on government bond yields drop.
Bitcoin is widely considered an anti-establishment asset and an alternative to the US Dollar and fiat currencies in general. So, theoretically, monetary and/or fiscal stimulus should bode well for bitcoin. |
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| Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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$9K Ahead?